Mathematical modeling to design public health policies for Chikungunya epidemic using optimal control

González-Parra, Gilberto; Díaz‐Rodríguez, Miguel; Arenas, Abraham J.

doi:10.1002/oca.2621

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 72 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For this type of study, it is important to highlight the limitations and hypotheses since media, health authorities, and people can reach wrong conclusions under a variety of scenarios. Nonetheless, the findings are useful to scientifically support health policies [146][147][148][149][150][151][152][153][154][155]. There are several assumptions and limitations in this study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra

2021

Epidemiologia

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The first round of vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in early December of 2020 in a few countries. There are several vaccines, and each has a different efficacy and mechanism of action. Several countries, for example, the United Kingdom and the USA, have been able to develop consistent vaccination programs where a great percentage of the population has been vaccinated (May 2021). However, in other countries, a low percentage of the population has been vaccinated due to constraints related to vaccine supply and distribution capacity. Countries such as the USA and the UK have implemented different vaccination strategies, and some scholars have been debating the optimal strategy for vaccine campaigns. This problem is complex due to the great number of variables that affect the relevant outcomes. In this article, we study the impact of different vaccination regimens on main health outcomes such as deaths, hospitalizations, and the number of infected. We develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to focus on this important health policy issue. Thus, we are able to identify the optimal strategy regarding vaccination campaigns. We find that for vaccines with high efficacy (>70%) after the first dose, the optimal strategy is to delay inoculation with the second dose. On the other hand, for a low first dose vaccine efficacy, it is better to use the standard vaccination regimen of 4 weeks between doses. Thus, under the delayed second dose option, a campaign focus on generating a certain immunity in as great a number of people as fast as possible is preferable to having an almost perfect immunity in fewer people first. Therefore, based on these results, we suggest that the UK implemented a better vaccination campaign than that in the USA with regard to time between doses. The results presented here provide scientific guidelines for other countries where vaccination campaigns are just starting, or the percentage of vaccinated people is small.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra

2021

Epidemiologia

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Health authorities can implement a vaccination program for cats and/or use ecologically friendly products to reduce the amount of oocysts and/or the time when the oocysts become infective. Studies using optimal control are recommended to evaluate the feasibility of these strategies, taking into account economic and ecological factors [63,64].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Modeling of Toxoplasmosis Considering a Time Delay in the Infectivity of Oocysts

2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we study the effect of the introduction of a time delay on the dynamics of toxoplasmosis. This time delay is the elapsed time from when oocysts become present in the environment and when they become infectious. We construct a mathematical model that includes cats and oocysts in the environment. We include the effect of oocysts, since they are crucial for the dynamics of toxoplasmosis. The likelihood of the acquisition of Toxoplasma gondii infection depends on the environmental load of the parasite. Furthermore, the model considers the possibility of vaccination of the feline host. In the mathematical model, we consider directly the infection of cats through the oocysts shed by other cats. We prove that the basic reproduction number R0 is a secondary parameter that determines the global dynamics of toxoplasmosis in cat populations. We study the effect of the time delay on the stability of the steady states. We find that the time delay cannot change the stability of the endemic state, which is an important result from the biological point of view. Numerical simulations are performed to support the theoretical results and obtain further insight into understanding toxoplasmosis dynamics in cat populations.

show abstract

“…Mathematical models based on differential equations have been useful to study how to reduce the burden of infectious diseases. The models allow the determination of optimal controls and estimate the impact of a variety of virus on the disease dynamics [67,75,77]. One advantage of mathematical models is that different simulations can be performed, and this allows us to analyze different main driven factors of epidemics under a variety of complex scenarios [8,11,59].…”

Section: Design Of a Nsfd Scheme For The Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical Analysis and Numerical Solution of a Model of HIV with a Discrete Time Delay

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We propose a mathematical model based on a set of delay differential equations that describe intracellular HIV infection. The model includes three different subpopulations of cells and the HIV virus. The mathematical model is formulated in such a way that takes into account the time between viral entry into a target cell and the production of new virions. We study the local stability of the infection-free and endemic equilibrium states. Moreover, by using a suitable Lyapunov functional and the LaSalle invariant principle, it is proved that if the basic reproduction ratio is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. In addition, we designed a non-standard difference scheme that preserves some relevant properties of the continuous mathematical model.

show abstract

Mathematical modeling to design public health policies for Chikungunya epidemic using optimal control

Cited by 15 publications

References 72 publications

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Mathematical Modeling of Toxoplasmosis Considering a Time Delay in the Infectivity of Oocysts

Mathematical Analysis and Numerical Solution of a Model of HIV with a Discrete Time Delay

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About