Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

González-Parra, Gilberto

doi:10.3390/epidemiologia2030021

Cited by 14 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 167 publications

(278 reference statements)

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“… 72 An estimated rise in the transmission rate is high and it is found in multiple other states of the United States. 73 , 74 It has L452R mutation in S protein which was discovered in the RBD. It increases infectivity because of the interaction between spike protein and ACE2 receptors.…”

Section: Variants Of the Sars‐cov‐2mentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS‐CoV‐2 variants and vulnerability at the global level

Chavda

Patel

Vaghasiya

2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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Numerous variants of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) pandemic have evolved. As viral variants may evolve with harmful susceptibility to the immunity established with the existing COVID‐19 vaccination, these variations are more transmissible, induce relatively extreme illness, have evasive immunological features, decrease neutralization using antibodies from vaccinated persons, and are more susceptible to re‐infection. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has categorized SARS‐CoV‐2 mutations as variants of interest (VOI), variants of concern (VOC), and variants of high consequence (VOHC). At the moment, four VOC and many variants of interest have been defined and require constant observation. This review article summarizes various variants of SARS‐CoV‐2 surfaced with special emphasis on VOCs that are spreading across the world, as well as several viral mutational impacts and how these modifications alter the properties of the virus.

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Section: Variants Of the Sars‐cov‐2mentioning

confidence: 99%

SARS‐CoV‐2 variants and vulnerability at the global level

Chavda

Patel

Vaghasiya

2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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“…Thus, an optimal vaccination campaign needs to consider the aforementioned factors. The governments of the USA and the UK have implemented different vaccination strategies, and some researchers have been investigating the optimal vaccination programs [47][48][49][50][51]. It has been found that the vaccination rate and the efficacy of the vaccine are the main factors in reducing some health outcomes, such as number of deaths, number of infected and hospitalizations [25,44,45,[52][53][54].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, in [53] the author found that an incidence-minimizing vaccination strategy is highly sensitive to vaccine efficacy, and vaccines with lower efficacy should be administered to teenagers and adults aged 50-59 years. Some researchers have studied the effects of delayed second doses on important health outcomes, such as death [6,48,50,51,55].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In all these works it has been shown that vaccination can reduce the burden of the disease. Previous studies have proposed mathematical models to investigate vaccination strategies specifically [6,48,51,55,68]. Some studies found that a delayed second dose strategy might be the optimal strategy under some circumstances and always under the assumption that there is a limit to vaccine availability [6,48,51,53,55].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have proposed mathematical models to investigate vaccination strategies specifically [6,48,51,55,68]. Some studies found that a delayed second dose strategy might be the optimal strategy under some circumstances and always under the assumption that there is a limit to vaccine availability [6,48,51,53,55]. Countries such as Afghanistan, Haiti and Syria have low percentages of their populations fully vaccinated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Modeling to Study Optimal Allocation of Vaccines against COVID-19 Using an Age-Structured Population

González-Parra

Cogollo

Arenas

2022

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Vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in early December of 2020 in the USA. The efficacy of the vaccines vary depending on the SARS-CoV-2 variant. Some countries have been able to deploy strong vaccination programs, and large proportions of their populations have been fully vaccinated. In other countries, low proportions of their populations have been vaccinated, due to different factors. For instance, countries such as Afghanistan, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti and Syria have less than 10% of their populations fully vaccinated at this time. Implementing an optimal vaccination program is a very complex process due to a variety of variables that affect the programs. Besides, science, policy and ethics are all involved in the determination of the main objectives of the vaccination program. We present two nonlinear mathematical models that allow us to gain insight into the optimal vaccination strategy under different situations, taking into account the case fatality rate and age-structure of the population. We study scenarios with different availabilities and efficacies of the vaccines. The results of this study show that for most scenarios, the optimal allocation of vaccines is to first give the doses to people in the 55+ age group. However, in some situations the optimal strategy is to first allocate vaccines to the 15–54 age group. This situation occurs whenever the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate is relatively high and the people in the 55+ age group have a transmission rate 50% or less that of those in the 15–54 age group. This study and similar ones can provide scientific recommendations for countries where the proportion of vaccinated individuals is relatively small or for future pandemics.

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