Mathematical modeling, analysis and numerical simulation of the COVID-19 transmission with mitigation of control strategies used in Cameroon

Djaoue, Seraphin; Kolaye, Gabriel Guilsou; Abboubakar, Hamadjam; Ari, Ado Adamou Abba; Damakoa, Irépran

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110281

Cited by 22 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…Continued compliance to preventive measures is therefore recommended as long as community transmission is ongoing, since COVID-19 spreaders could appear perfectly healthy in about half of cases [ 22 ]. In that light, mathematical modellers recommended that confinement (even partial), alongside mass masking and other hygienic rules, is indispensable to eradicate COVID-19 in Cameroon [ 23 , 24 ]. It could be worthwhile to investigate the effects of traditional medicine use on both the occurrence of flu-like symptoms among Cameroonians during the COVID-19 outbreak, and also on the preventive behaviours of avid consumers of home-made concoctions, as the latter may feel more protected against the virus than others.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Fodjo

Ngarka²,

Njamnshi³

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Since March 2020, the Cameroonian government implemented nationwide measures to stall COVID-19 transmission. However, little is known about how well these unprecedented measures are being observed as the pandemic evolves. We conducted a six-month online survey to assess the preventive behaviour of Cameroonian adults during the COVID-19 outbreak. A five-point adherence score was constructed based on self-reported observance of the following preventive measures: physical distancing, face mask use, hand hygiene, not touching one’s face, and covering the mouth when coughing or sneezing. Predictors of adherence were investigated using ordinal logistic regression models. Of the 7381 responses received from all ten regions, 73.3% were from male respondents and overall mean age was 32.8 ± 10.8 years. Overall mean adherence score was 3.96 ± 1.11 on a scale of 0–5. Mean weekly adherence scores were initially high, but gradually decreased over time accompanied by increasing incidence of COVID-19 during the last study weeks. Predictors for higher adherence included higher age, receiving COVID-19 information from health personnel, and agreeing with the necessity of lockdown measures. Meanwhile, experiencing flu-like symptoms was associated with poor adherence. Continuous observance of preventive measures should be encouraged among Cameroonians in the medium- to long-term to avoid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Fodjo

Ngarka²,

Njamnshi³

et al. 2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Then, for the second declaration of the state of emergency, the number of cumulative cases was predicted. It was found that increasing the PCR test index by 30% could decrease the number of overall infected cases by around 310 4 . The state of emergency could also be lifted earlier.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of containment strategies have been enforced to control the pandemic by many governments including restrictions on travel and public gatherings, school delays or closings, social distancing, and even lockdown measures [ 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ]. Some extreme actions can have a significant impact on the socioeconomic systems [ 9 ], which may be continued by some authorities [ 10 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

Chen

Shu

Huang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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To assess the effectiveness of the containment strategies proposed in Japan, an SEIAQR (susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-quarantined-recovered) model was established to simulate the transmission of COVID-19. We divided the spread of COVID-19 in Japan into different stages based on policies. The effective reproduction number Re and the transmission parameters were determined to evaluate the measures conducted by the Japanese Government during these periods. On 7 April 2020, the Japanese authority declared a state of emergency to control the rapid development of the pandemic. Based on the simulation results, the spread of COVID-19 in Japan can be inhibited by containment actions during the state of emergency. The effective reproduction number Re reduced from 1.99 (before the state of emergency) to 0.92 (after the state of emergency). The transmission parameters were fitted and characterized with quantifiable variables including the ratio of untracked cases, the PCR test index and the proportion of COCOA app users (official contact confirming application). The impact of these variables on the control of COVID-19 was investigated in the modelling analysis. On 8 January 2021, the Japanese Government declared another state of emergency. The simulated results demonstrated that the spread could be controlled in May by keeping the same strategies. A higher intensity of PCR testing was suggested, and a larger proportion of COCOA app users should reduce the final number of infections and the time needed to control the spread of COVID-19.

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“…Epidemiological models attempt to forecast the pandemic days and months ahead and take action to change the course of the pandemic for the better. These model are either mathematical [ 47 ] or statistical [ 48 ], use numerical modeling and computational simulation [ 49 ], or apply the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques for short-term [ 50 ] or long-term [ 51 ] projections of the disease. The particular model mainly depends upon the type of data available to the researchers.…”

Section: Covid-19 Applications For Health Professionalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Evaluation of COVID-19 Web Applications for Health Professionals: Challenges and Opportunities

et al. 2020

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The multidisciplinary nature of the work required for research in the COVID-19 pandemic has created new challenges for health professionals in the battle against the virus. They need to be equipped with novel tools, applications, and resources—that have emerged during the pandemic—to gain access to breakthrough findings; know the latest developments; and to address their specific needs for rapid data acquisition, analysis, evaluation, and reporting. Because of the complex nature of the virus, healthcare systems worldwide are severely impacted as the treatment and the vaccine for COVID-19 disease are not yet discovered. This leads to frequent changes in regulations and policies by governments and international organizations. Our analysis suggests that given the abundance of information sources, finding the most suitable application for analysis, evaluation, or reporting, is one of such challenges. However, health professionals and policy-makers need access to the most relevant, reliable, trusted, and latest information and applications that can be used in their day-to-day tasks of COVID-19 research and analysis. In this article, we present our analysis of various novel and important web-based applications that have been specifically developed during the COVID-19 pandemic and that can be used by the health professionals community to help in advancing their analysis and research. These applications comprise search portals and their associated information repositories for literature and clinical trials, data sources, tracking dashboards, and forecasting models. We present a list of the minimally essential online, web-based applications to serve a multitude of purposes, from hundreds of those developed since the beginning of the pandemic. A critical analysis is provided for the selected applications based on 17 features that can be useful for researchers and analysts for their evaluations. These features make up our evaluation framework and have not been used previously for analysis and evaluation. Therefore, knowledge of these applications will not only increase productivity but will also allow us to explore new dimensions for using existing applications with more control, better management, and greater outcome of their research. In addition, the features used in our framework can be applied for future evaluations of similar applications and health professionals can adapt them for evaluation of other applications not covered in this analysis.

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Mathematical modeling, analysis and numerical simulation of the COVID-19 transmission with mitigation of control strategies used in Cameroon

Cited by 22 publications

References 24 publications

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Modelling Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and the State of Emergency in Japan

Analysis and Evaluation of COVID-19 Web Applications for Health Professionals: Challenges and Opportunities

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