Master–slave game operation scheduling strategy of an integrated energy system considering the uncertainty of wind and solar output

Abstract

Introduction: With the development of the energy market and the gradual rise of emerging market players, the linkage of interests between energy sources and loads in the Integrated Energy System (IES) has become increasingly complex. Additionally, the reliability of the system has been impacted by the growing proportion of renewable energy output.Methods: To address the challenges posed by the above issues. This paper first proposes an operational strategy for an integrated energy system that incorporates the uncertainty of wind and solar output using a master-slave game approach. To enhance system robustness and cost-effectiveness, the paper introduces the information gap decision theory (IGDT). Second, building on this foundation, the system operator is considered as the leader, adding a tiered carbon trading mechanism and cloud energy storage system, and building a system revenue maximization model. Then, the user is regarded as the follower, and an optimization model is developed based on integrated demand response (IDR). Finally, the two-layer model is converted into a mixed-integer linear programming problem (MILP) to be solved by the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions (KKT) combined with the big M method.Results: The analysis of the example shows that according to the difference of the decision maker’s attitude towards risk, different scheduling schemes can be obtained through the two perspectives of risk-seeking and risk-avoiding, which can provide guidance for the dynamic operation of the system, and at the same time, the users can be guided by the energy differentials to reasonably use the energy under this strategy.Discussion: Therefore, the proposed strategy in this paper can balance the economy and robustness of the system.

Quantitative assessment method of new energy output uncertainty based on the prediction error

“…As the penetration rate of distributed new energy continues to increase (Zhang and Shen, 2024), there are obvious contradictions in response to the uncertainty of new energy resources in the preservation of consumption and the safe operation of the power grid (Zhi et al, 2020), in which the insufficient new energy perception ability is one of the main factors, mainly manifested in the difficulty of modeling refinement of distributed new energy field stations and the lack of credibility of power prediction (Chao et al, 2021), which seriously restricts the ability of the grid control department to control the power generation capacity of new energy stations (Jinghua et al, 2022). For dealing with the uncertainty of new energy, the power grid needs to reserve a larger margin (Dong et al, 2023), leading to an increase in the cost of controlling the margin for the safe operation of the power grid and, at the same time, improving the difficulty of balancing and guaranteeing the supply of power in the power grid.…”