Quantitative assessment method of new energy output uncertainty based on the prediction error

Abstract

With a high percentage of distributed new energy sources connected to the power system, the power grid needs to reserve a larger margin to deal with the uncertainty of renewable energy outputs, leading to an increase in the cost of controlling the margins for the safe operation of the power grid. In order to reduce costs and increase efficiency, a quantitative assessment of new energy output uncertainty is needed. In this paper, a quantitative assessment method of new energy output uncertainty based on the prediction error is proposed, which makes use of a graph database to efficiently obtain massive new energy historical data, uses the clustering in quest (CLIQUE) algorithm to cluster the new energy historical data, and calculates the renewable energy real power confidence interval based on a given new energy power prediction, taking account of the impact of prediction errors caused by the new energy uncertainty and realizing the quantitative description of new energy output uncertainty. Finally, the method is calculated and analyzed together with the actual example data to verify the practical effect of the method.