Market Segmentation and the Prediction of Tourist Behavior: The Case of Bornholm, Denmark

Abstract

Data from a visitor survey on the Danish Island of Bornholm were analyzed using multivariate techniques. Factor analysis of visitors’ preferences and behavior patterns indicated three main goals: relaxation, nature, and local culture. Two distinct clusters, “active” and “inactive” vacationers, were derived from the data. Actives tended to be Germans, to plan their vacation carefully to exercise autonomy in their booking of transport and accommodation, and to value the provision of amenities on the island. Inactives were mostly Scandinavians, and though they made fewer plans, they were more likely to visit the island’s most popular attractions. On the basis of logistic regression analysis, it is suggested that the most important differentiating factors between clusters were (1) the importance accorded to amenity provision, (2) nationality, (3) age, (4) activity participation, (5) planning behavior, (6) attraction visiting behavior, (7) autonomy, and (8) gender.

Segmentation: A tourism stakeholder view

“…These results suggest that the use of a single variable to segment tourists (e.g. Brayley, 1993;Johns & Gyimothy, 2002;Moscardo et al, 2000) may be less managerially useful than the use of a combined segmentation approach. However, it does depend on the aims of management.…”

“…Cha et al, 1995;Johns & Gyimothy, 2002;Letho et al, 2002;Morrison et al, 1996) have criticised demographic and geographic segmentation bases for their failure to predict who will travel to a destination in future. A key explanation for this failure lies in the insights gained in this study.…”

“…demographic and behavioural) criticised for their failure to predict actual consumer behaviour (e.g. Andereck & Caldwell, 1994;Cha et al, 1995;Johns & Gyimothy, 2002;Letho, O'Leary & Morrison, 2002;Morrison, Braunlich, Cai & O'Leary, 1996;Prentice, Witt, & Hamer, 1998). A review of 115 tourism segmentation studies indicates that while there has been mixed used of demographic, behavioural, psychographic and geographic segmentation bases, the majority of studies have used two or more segmentation bases to segment markets.…”

“…Bonn et al, 2005;Carmichael & Smith, 2004;Cha et al, 1995;Seiler et al, 2002) the most common approach adopted in tourism segmentation studies is to develop tourist profiles for one destination using tourist surveys (e.g. Bloom, 2005;Horneman et al, 2002;Johns & Gyimothy, 2002;Sirakaya et al, 2003). A tourist focus means the selection of variables for segmentation relies solely on researcher judgment.…”

“…To date research has assisted us to understand which bases can be used by tourism destinations to effectively segment tourism markets (e.g. Dolnicar & Leisch, 2003;Johns & Gyimothy, 2002;Laesser & Crouch, 2006). Further, these efforts have largely centred upon building tourist profiles for a destination using visitor data (e.g.…”