Abstract:A changing climate is driving increasingly common and prolonged marine heatwaves (MHWs) and these extreme events have now been widely documented to severely impact marine ecosystems globally. However, MHWs have rarely been considered when examining temperature-induced degradation of coral reef ecosystems. Here we consider extreme, localized thermal anomalies, nested within broader increases in sea surface temperature, which fulfill the definitive criteria for MHWs. These acute and intense events, referred to h… Show more
“…This is caused by the increase in solar insolation during the summer months, and results in a strong density gradient at the bottom of the MLD that prevents the mixing of nutrient‐rich waters within the shallow euphotic zone creating a zone of nutrient limitation above the MLD and light limitation below the MLD for phyto‐ and icoplankton (Figure b). Regional changes in the physical oceanography of tropical oceans can also contribute to the increasing occurrence of local perturbations such as marine heatwave hotspots which have similar oceanographic features; increased heat absorbed in shallow waters, increased stratification, and a decrease in the MLD (Fordyce, Ainsworth, Heron, & Leggat, ). The depths observed for the maximum MLD overlap with the maximum depths of the euphotic zone (i.e., 1% of downwelling irradiance [ E d ]) observed on many coral reefs from 58 to 102 m (Lesser, Slattery, et al, ).…”
Section: Climate Change‐related Effects On the Physical Oceanography mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Illustration showing (a) the physical oceanography of a contemporary coral reef from shallow (<30 m) to mesophotic (30–150 m) depths down to the mixed layer depth (~100 m), and (b) the same coral reef in 2100 with the changes in physical forcing, productivity, and changes in reef community structure (see text for detailed description). Redrawn from Fordyce et al () with permission from the authors…”
Recent observations have shown that increases in climate change‐related coral mortality cause changes in shallow coral reef community structure through phase shifts to alternative taxa. As a result, sponges have emerged as a potential candidate taxon to become a “winner,” and therefore a numerically and functionally dominant member of many coral reef communities. But, in order for this to occur, there must be sufficient trophic resources to support larger populations of these active filter‐feeding organisms. Globally, climate change is causing an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a decrease in salinity, which can lead to an intensification in the stratification of shallow nearshore waters (0–200 m), that affects both the mixed layer depth (MLD) and the strength and duration of internal waves. Specifically, climate change‐driven increases in SSTs for tropical waters are predicted to cause increased stratification, and more stabilized surface waters. This causes a shallowing of the MLD which prevents nutrients from reaching the euphotic zone, and is predicted to decrease net primary production (NPP) up to 20% by the end of the century. Lower NPP would subsequently affect multiple trophic levels, including shallow benthic filter‐feeding communities, as the coupling between water column productivity and the benthos weakens. We argue here that sponge populations may actually be constrained, rather than promoted, by climate change due to decreases in their primary trophic resources, caused by bottom‐up forcing, secondary to physical changes in the water column (i.e., stratification and changes in the MLD resulting in lower nutrients and NPP). As a result, we predict sponge‐dominated tropical reefs will be rare, or short‐lived, if they occur at all into the future in the Anthropocene.
“…This is caused by the increase in solar insolation during the summer months, and results in a strong density gradient at the bottom of the MLD that prevents the mixing of nutrient‐rich waters within the shallow euphotic zone creating a zone of nutrient limitation above the MLD and light limitation below the MLD for phyto‐ and icoplankton (Figure b). Regional changes in the physical oceanography of tropical oceans can also contribute to the increasing occurrence of local perturbations such as marine heatwave hotspots which have similar oceanographic features; increased heat absorbed in shallow waters, increased stratification, and a decrease in the MLD (Fordyce, Ainsworth, Heron, & Leggat, ). The depths observed for the maximum MLD overlap with the maximum depths of the euphotic zone (i.e., 1% of downwelling irradiance [ E d ]) observed on many coral reefs from 58 to 102 m (Lesser, Slattery, et al, ).…”
Section: Climate Change‐related Effects On the Physical Oceanography mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Illustration showing (a) the physical oceanography of a contemporary coral reef from shallow (<30 m) to mesophotic (30–150 m) depths down to the mixed layer depth (~100 m), and (b) the same coral reef in 2100 with the changes in physical forcing, productivity, and changes in reef community structure (see text for detailed description). Redrawn from Fordyce et al () with permission from the authors…”
Recent observations have shown that increases in climate change‐related coral mortality cause changes in shallow coral reef community structure through phase shifts to alternative taxa. As a result, sponges have emerged as a potential candidate taxon to become a “winner,” and therefore a numerically and functionally dominant member of many coral reef communities. But, in order for this to occur, there must be sufficient trophic resources to support larger populations of these active filter‐feeding organisms. Globally, climate change is causing an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and a decrease in salinity, which can lead to an intensification in the stratification of shallow nearshore waters (0–200 m), that affects both the mixed layer depth (MLD) and the strength and duration of internal waves. Specifically, climate change‐driven increases in SSTs for tropical waters are predicted to cause increased stratification, and more stabilized surface waters. This causes a shallowing of the MLD which prevents nutrients from reaching the euphotic zone, and is predicted to decrease net primary production (NPP) up to 20% by the end of the century. Lower NPP would subsequently affect multiple trophic levels, including shallow benthic filter‐feeding communities, as the coupling between water column productivity and the benthos weakens. We argue here that sponge populations may actually be constrained, rather than promoted, by climate change due to decreases in their primary trophic resources, caused by bottom‐up forcing, secondary to physical changes in the water column (i.e., stratification and changes in the MLD resulting in lower nutrients and NPP). As a result, we predict sponge‐dominated tropical reefs will be rare, or short‐lived, if they occur at all into the future in the Anthropocene.
“…This metric is the integral of the temperature anomalies of a MHW, and so has units of • Cdays, and represents the sum of temperature anomalies over the duration of the MHW. Cumulative intensity is comparable to the degree heating day metrics used in coral reef studies (Fordyce et al, 2019).…”
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), or prolonged periods of anomalously warm sea water temperature, have been increasing in duration and intensity globally for decades. However, there are many coastal, oceanic, polar, and sub-surface regions where our ability to detect MHWs is uncertain due to limited high quality data. Here, we investigate the effect that short time series length, missing data, or linear long-term temperature trends may have on the detection of MHWs. We show that MHWs detected in time series as short as 10 years did not have durations or intensities appreciably different from events detected in a standard 30 year long time series. We also show that the output of our MHW algorithm for time series missing less than 25% data did not differ appreciably from a complete time series, and that the level of allowable missing data could cautiously be increased to 50% when gaps were filled by linear interpolation. Finally, linear long-term trends of 0.10 • C/decade or greater added to a time series caused larger changes (increases) to the count and duration of detected MHWs than shortening a time series to 10 years or missing more than 25% of the data. The longterm trend in a time series has the largest effect on the detection of MHWs and has the largest range in added uncertainty in the results. Time series length has less of an effect on MHW detection than missing data, but adds a larger range of uncertainty to the results. We provide suggestions for best practices to improve the accuracy of MHW detection with sub-optimal time series and show how the accuracy of these corrections may change regionally.
“…This dysbiosis has a myriad of negative consequences, ranging from declines in coral growth and reproduction to extensive coral mortality (Ward et al 2000;Baird and Marshall 2002;Baker et al 2008;Hughes, Kerry, et al 2018). These bleaching-associated outcomes affect the function of the entire reef ecosystem, as coral biomineralization is necessary to build and maintain the physical framework that is required to support the immense biodiversity typical of a healthy coral reef (Fordyce et al 2019;Leggat et al 2019;.…”
Urgent action is needed to prevent the demise of coral reefs as the climate crisis leads to an increasingly warmer and more acidic ocean. Propagating climate change resistant corals to restore degraded reefs is one promising strategy; however, empirical evidence is needed to determine if resistance is retained following transplantation within or beyond a coral’s natal reef. Here we assessed the performance of bleaching-resistant individuals of two coral species following reciprocal transplantation between environmentally distinct reefs (low vs high diel variability) to determine if stress resistance is retained following transplantation. Critically, transplantation to either environment had no influence on coral bleaching resistance, indicating that this trait was relatively fixed and is thus a useful metric for selecting corals for reef restoration within their native range. In contrast, growth was highly plastic, and native performance was not predictive of performance in the novel environment. Coral metabolism was also plastic, with cross transplants of both species matching the performance of native corals at both reefs within three months. Coral physiology (autotrophy, heterotrophy, and metabolism) and overall fitness (survival, growth, and reproduction) were higher at the reef with higher flow and fluctuations in diel pH and dissolved oxygen, and did not differ between native corals and cross-transplants. Conversely, cross-transplants at the low-variability reef had higher fitness than native corals, thus increasing overall fitness of the recipient population. This experiment was conducted during a non-bleaching year, which suggests that introduction of these bleaching-resistant individuals will provide even greater fitness benefits to recipient populations during bleaching years. In summary, this study demonstrates that propagating and transplanting bleaching-resistant corals can elevate the resistance of coral populations to ocean warming while simultaneously maintaining reef function as the climate crisis worsens.
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