Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Yin, Qian; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Li, Jie; Lee, Hyewon

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

Cited by 119 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(50 reference statements)

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“…The most important result to emerge from the analysis is that in the investigated area, the threshold temperature was about 21 • C, supporting the assumption that people in the area are more acclimatized to higher temperatures. MMT has been calculated in over 400 locations using the mean daily temperatures showing values of 29-32 • C in the eastern Mediterranean region and over 23 • C in the rest of the Mediterranean [15]. The probability risk of mortality using GAM revealed a stronger relation with the minimum daily temperature, so future studies should focus on the investigation of MMT using daily minimum temperatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MMT is defined as the temperature at which there is the lowest risk of mortality according to a probability risk assessment. The question of whether fixed factors are affecting the MMT has to be addressed carefully in the eastern Mediterranean region because of the limited number of studies showing high MMT; 29-32 • C [15]. Generally, MMT has been found to be lower for populations living in colder climates and higher for populations living in warmer climates [11,14,16] with the temperature-mortality relationship described as a J-, V-, or U-shaped curve.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

Pyrgou

Santamouris

2020

Climate

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We have examined the heat and cold-related mortality risk subject to cold and heat extremes by using a generalized additive model (GAM) regression technique to quantify the effect of the stimulus of mortality in the presence of covariate data for 2007–2014 in Nicosia, Cyprus. The use of the GAM technique with multiple linear regression allowed for the continuous covariates of temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) to be modeled as smooth functions and the lag period was considered to relate mortality to lagged values of temperature. Our findings indicate that the previous three days’ temperatures were strongly predictive of mortality. The mortality risk decreased as the minimum temperature (Tmin) increased from the coldest days to a certain threshold temperature about 20–21°C (different for each age group and gender), above which the mortality risk increased as Tmin increased. The investigated fixed factors analysis showed an insignificant association of gender-mortality, whereas the age-mortality association showed that the population over 80 was more vulnerable to temperature variations. It was recommended that the minimum mortality temperature is calculated using the minimum daily temperatures because it has a stronger correlation to the probability for risk of mortality. It is still undetermined as to what degree a change in existing climatic conditions will increase the environmental stress to humans as the population is acclimatized to different climates with different threshold temperatures and minimum mortality temperatures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

Pyrgou

Santamouris

2020

Climate

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“…A number of metrological parameters are affected, among which temperature plays a major role in the impact of climate change (Ahmadi et al 2018). Therefore, extensive research has been performed to determine the impact of climate change on temperature in different parts of the world (Alexander et al 2006;Fallah-Ghalhari et al 2019;Yin et al 2019). Minimum, mean, and maximum daily temperature have been taken as the most important temperature characteristics in analysis of climate change (Dimri 2019;Moberg and Jones 2005;Scorzini et al 2018;Vincent et al 2018Vincent et al , 2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New indices for assessing changes in seasons and in timing characteristics of air temperature

Hekmatzadeh

Kaboli

Haghighi

2020

Theor Appl Climatol

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Previous studies examining climate change and changes in the timing of seasons have used a fixed temperature threshold for season onset. In this study, the timing of seasons was determined using non-fixed threshold methods. Twelve new timing indices were defined to account for shifts in seasons and season onset day, thermal centroid day, and length. The Mann-Kendall test, Theil-Sen's slope estimator, sequential Mann-Kendall test, and least square linear regression were used to assess trends. The timing indices were examined using data from two meteorological stations in Iran with 50 years of records. Spatio-temporal variations in each index over 30 years (1987-2016) were then determined for Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran. Trend analysis for several indices indicated that the timing of seasons had probably changed in the south and west of the study area, while mountainous regions showed non-significant trends. Based on the hottest and coldest 90-day periods (summer and winter, respectively), during the three decades studied, spring lengthened by 5-10 days/decade in the plain region of Khuzestan province and autumn shortened by about 5-8 days/decade. The centroid of winter occurred earlier, by 2-5 days/decade, in the plains area, while the thermal centroid of summer did not change significantly. Overall, the difference between the thermal centroid of winter and summer (C win-sum) in the plains area significantly decreased, by 6-8 days/decade, in the 30-year period.

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“…Districts with larger populations are intrinsically high-risk regions as an economy reopens. It is reasonable to study the impact of local migrant resident populations on different strategy effects [43]. Therefore, we generated COVID-19 transmission results for three districts of Beijing, with small (48,000), moderate (306,000), and large (1,579,000) migrant residents with a reproductive number of 2.2 (Fig 5) [44].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of different resumption strategies on COVID-19 transmission using a modeling study setting. We employed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks under five reopening strategies based on the business resumption progress in China. The effect of each strategy was evaluated using the peak values of the epidemic curves with respect to confirmed active cases and cumulative cases. We found that a hierarchy-based reopen strategy performed best when current epidemic prevention measures were maintained save for lockdown, reducing the peak number of active cases and cumulative cases by 50% and 44%, respectively. However, the modeled effect of each strategy decreased when the current intervention was lifted somewhat. Additional attention should be given to regions with significant numbers of migrants, as the potential risk of COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening is intrinsically high. Business resumption strategies have the potential to eliminate COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopening without special control measures. The proposed resumption strategies focused mainly on decreasing the number of imported exposure cases, guaranteeing medical support for epidemic control, or decreasing active cases.

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Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Cited by 119 publications

References 40 publications

Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis

New indices for assessing changes in seasons and in timing characteristics of air temperature

Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study

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