Mapping Flood-Related Mortality in the Mediterranean Basin. Results from the MEFF v2.0 DB

Abstract

Recent events in Western Attica in Greece (24 deaths in November 2017), in the Balearic Islands (13 deaths in October 2018), and in southern France (15 deaths in October 2018) show that flood-related mortality remains a major concern in Mediterranean countries facing flash floods. Over the past several years, many initiatives have arisen to create databases on flood-related mortality. An international initiative started in 2011 pooling regional and national databases on flood mortality from region and/or countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. The MEditerranean Flood Fatality Database (MEFF DB) brings together, in 2018, six Mediterranean regions/countries: Catalonia (Spain), Balearic Islands (Spain), Southern France, Calabria (Italy), Greece, and Turkey, and covers the period 1980–2018. MEFF DB is on progress and, every year, new data are included, but for this study, we kept only the preliminary data that were geolocated and validated on 31st of December 2018. This research introduces a new step in the analysis of flood-related mortality and follows the statistical description of the MEFF DB already published. The goals of this paper are to draw the spatial distribution of flood mortality through a geographical information system (GIS) at different spatial scales: country, NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics. Level 3) regions, catchment areas, and grid. A fatality rate (F: number of deaths/year/million of inhabitants) is created to help this analysis. Then, we try to relate mortality to basic (human or physical) drivers such as population density, rainfall seasonality, or rainfall frequency across the Mediterranean Basin. The mapping of F shows a negative mortality gradient between the western and the eastern parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The south of France appears to be the most affected region. The maps also highlight the seasonality of flood-related deaths with the same west–east gradient. It confirms that flood mortality follows the climatological seasonal patterns across the Mediterranean Basin. Flood-related fatalities mainly occur during the early fall season in the western part of the Mediterranean area, while the Easter Basin is affected later, in November or during the winter season. Eastern Turkey introduces another pattern, as mortality is more severe in summer. Mortality maps are then compared with factors that potentially contribute to the occurrence of flood fatalities, such as precipitation intensity (rainfall hazard), to explain geographical differences in the fatality rate. The density of a fatal event is correlated to the population density and the rainfall frequency. Conversely, the average number of deaths per event depends on other factors such as prevention or crisis management.

Validation of the AROME, ALADIN and WRF Meteorological Models for Flood Forecasting in Morocco

“…Flash floods mainly affect small watersheds where the response time to a rainfall event is very short, from a few minutes to a few hours [1][2][3]. Flash floods are common in the Mediterranean region, mainly caused by convective rainfall with an intensity that exceeds the infiltration capacity of the basin, which may potentially generate devastating floods [4,5]. The concentration time of is concentrated only in the highest elevation areas.…”

Hydrometeorological analysis and forecasting of a 3-day flash-flood-triggering desert rainstorm

“…These events often result in casualties and damage (Barredo, 2007;Borga et al, 2019;Doocy et al, 2013;Grodek et al, 2012;Petrucci et al, 2019;Vinet et al, 2019), and are ranked among the most devastating natural hazards worldwide (Barredo, 2007;Borga et al, 2014;Doocy et al, 2013;Gaume et al, 2009;Gruntfest and Handmer, 2001;Marchi et al, 2010;Sene, 2013).…”

“…As a result of the complex rainfall patterns, runoff in arid and semiarid regions is often unexpected, localized, and characterized by high temporal variability (Morin et al, 2009b;Nicholson, 2011). Hillslope runoff does not always reach the stream network (Shmilovitz et al, 2020;Yair et al, 1980;Yair and Kossovsky, 2002;Yair and Raz-Yassif, 2004) and transmission losses can further enhance the intra-basin complexities and runoff localization (Greenbaum et al, 2002;Morin et al, 2009a;Walters, 1990). Even in the most extreme events, only part of the basin contributes runoff (Nicholson, 2011;Pilgrim et al, 1988;Yang et al, 2017).…”

“…(a) Mean annual rain depth map of Israel(1960-1990 and the Zin basin location. Extents and locations of the Shaham-Mekorot and the Israel Meteorological Service C-band radars are in blue and red, respectively.…”

Future Changes in Euro-Mediterranean Daytime Severe Thunderstorm Environments Based on an RCP8.5 Med-CORDEX Simulation

“…The European domains used in earlier studies usually cover the Western Mediterranean, parts of the Central Mediterranean, and exclude the Eastern Mediterranean. However, the Eastern Mediterranean and adjacent territories experience severe convective weather very frequently [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. Therefore, a domain choice covering the entire sea and the surrounding territories is important to realistically assess the future changes in severe storm environments in the region.…”