Mapping Conservation Strategies under a Changing Climate

Belote, R. Travis; Dietz, Matt S; McKinley, Peter S.; Carlson, Anne A.; Carroll, Carlos; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Urban, Dean L.; Fullman, Timothy J.; Leppi, Jason C.; Aplet, Gregory H.

doi:10.1093/biosci/bix028

Cited by 28 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Climate change and the related increase in extreme events are likely to impact the structure, composition, and function of ecosystems globally (Doughty, ; Holmgren & Hirota, ; Pederson, ; Uriarte, Lasky, Boukili, & Chazdon, ). Several conservationists explored the potential influence of climate change on global terrestrial ecosystems to identify the conservation priorities and implement adaptive management strategies (Baccini, ; Belote et al., ; Summers, Bryan, Crossman, & Meyer, ; Watson, Iwamura, & Butt, ). Because climate change is likely to pose higher risks to vulnerable areas, estimates of the spatial distribution of global ecosystem vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed to prepare optimal adaptive strategies (Crossman, Bryan, & Summers, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Liu

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

189

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Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Liu

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

189

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“…The Southern Appalachian Mountains have been identified as a critical region for historical [36,40] and projected future [41,42] climate change-driven species migrations. Minimizing or eliminated non-climate stressors to species and ecosystems through elevated levels of conservation protection may be regarded as a 'no regrets' climate adaptation conservation strategy [43].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the National Significance of Local Areas for Regional Conservation Planning: North Carolina’s Mountain Treasures

Belote¹,

Irwin²

2017

Land

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Conservation scientists recognize that additional protected areas are needed to maintain biological diversity and ecological processes. As regional conservation planners embark on recommending additional areas for protection in formal ecological reserves, it is important to evaluate candidate lands for their role in building a resilient protected areas system of the future. Here, we evaluate North Carolina's Mountain Treasures with respect to their (1) ecological integrity, (2) role in connecting existing core protected areas, (3) potential to diversify the ecosystem representation of reserves, and (4) role in maintaining hotspots of biologically-rich areas that are not well protected. Mountain Treasures represent a citizen inventory of roadless areas and serve as candidates for elevated levels of conservation protection on U.S. federal lands. We compared Mountain Treasures to other candidate lands throughout the country to evaluate their potential national significance. While the Mountain Treasures tended to be more impacted by human modifications than other roadless areas, they are as important as other roadless areas with respect to their role in connecting existing protected areas and diversifying representation of ecosystems in conservation reserves. However, Mountain Treasures tended to have a much higher biodiversity priority index than other roadless areas leading to an overall higher composite score compared to other roadless areas. Our analysis serves as an example of how using broad-scale datasets can help conservation planners assess the national significance of local areas.

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“…Zones with low NI will require greater restorative interventions, unlike the zones in the second quadrant, since these zones have a stable bioclimate, and historical species compositions and processes can be restored in these areas [69]. At present, these zones have a low density of natural areas but if they are protected from further degradation, they could serve as a shelter for species in the future owing to their relatively stable climate [25]. As Zone 10 has low NI and climate change is relatively slow, the historical distribution of ecosystems and species can be used as a guide in the restoration of damaged areas.…”

Section: Low Bvi Low Ni (Third Quadrant)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This means that the restoration of historical habitat conditions may no longer be effective, as the climatic conditions are no longer suitable for that habitat [21][22][23]. Accordingly, many researchers have begun to reconsider the use of targets based on conditions and are instead proposing climate-adapted interventions or advanced, proactive planning approaches [24][25][26][27].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ecosystem classifications, including ecoregions, and climate classifications are commonly used as a basis for conservation planning, with the assumption that environmental change is reflected in changes in biodiversity patterns [25,[28][29][30]. For instance, using the concept of ecoregions, researchers have proposed the prioritization of conservation [31], carried out climate change vulnerability analysis [29], and evaluated protected areas [32], e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

Choi

Lim

Chung

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and targeted efforts are needed to mitigate the loss of species. Conventional conservation efforts have focused on establishing protected areas and restoring degraded lands in order to maintain current conditions or restore ecosystems to a pre-damaged state. However, as the climate changes, the current bioclimatic zones will be re-distributed globally. Historical distribution patterns may no longer serve as an effective guide for supporting biodiversity under climate change. In response to these challenges, this study proposes a spatially explicit strategy for biodiversity conservation that takes climate change into account using bioclimatic classification. The bioclimatic classification maps of Northeast Asia (NEA) were constructed for three historical time periods (the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s) and two future time periods (the 2050s and 2070s) using five general circulation models (GCMs) in representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It was predicted that, in general, zones are shifting north, and some zones are expanding or shrinking rapidly. Based on an analysis of latitudinal and areal change for each zone, the bioclimate vulnerability index (BVI) and naturality index (NI) were developed to quantify the impact of environmental change. As a result of the BVI analysis, the distribution of vulnerable zones is expected to shift northward and expand. As is evident with the increased vulnerability of the subarctic region caused by the expansion of the temperate climate, the extent of vulnerable zones will increase. Also, the southern regions of NEA are becoming vulnerable due to the transformation of the temperate zone to a more subtropical zone. Quadrant graphs based on the BVI and NI were created to present appropriate strategies for each zone. Our proposed framework shows that conservation strategies should be modified based on the changes in the relative position of each zone over time.

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Mapping Conservation Strategies under a Changing Climate

Cited by 28 publications

References 40 publications

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Quantifying the National Significance of Local Areas for Regional Conservation Planning: North Carolina’s Mountain Treasures

Novel Index for bioclimatic zone-based biodiversity conservation strategies under climate change in Northeast Asia

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