Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread into the Northern Hemisphere including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Balkans. The rapid expansion of LSDV in those regions represented the emergence of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread through the (a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV, and (b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk, using a combination of ecological niche modelling and fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence data. We used ecological niche modelling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. That analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk for LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modelling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia and Bulgaria. The results suggest that, if current ecological and epidemiological conditions persist, further spread of LSDV in Eurasia may be expected. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region.

Review: Vaccines and Vaccination against Lumpy Skin Disease

“…LSD risk factors that are typically evaluated for risk assessment purposes are often poorly understood. These factors should include the following risk categories: Environmental factors, such as climate and geomorphology, potentially influence arthropod vector biology [ 113 , 114 , 115 ], husbandry and biosecurity practices [ 24 , 116 , 117 ], cattle characteristics and their immune status [ 76 , 117 , 118 , 119 ], regulatory disease control and surveillance structures [ 104 , 120 ], animal- or personnel-associated movements [ 107 , 108 , 110 , 121 , 122 ], as well as societal factors [ 2 , 23 , 123 ]. Risk assessments and control of the risk factors for LSD offer valuable support in scenarios where LSD vaccination is not desired or possible for regulatory, economical, or infrastructural reasons, thus shifting from vaccination-centered disease control programs to strengthening LSD biosecurity, awareness, relevant movement regulations, and risk-based surveillance.…”

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis

“…The resulting statistical models were then used to assess the risk of LSDV in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and central Asia. Allepuz et al (2019) used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with LSDV occurrence, while Machado et al (2019) used a combination of ecological niche modelling and Poisson regression. Allepuz et al (2019) identified increased odds of LSDV associated with land cover (specifically, cropland, grassland or shrubland compared with forest), higher cattle densities, higher annual mean temperature and higher diurnal temperature ranges.…”

Complete Coding Sequence of a Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Strain Isolated during the 2016 Outbreak in Kazakhstan

“…Historically restricted to Africa, the disease reached the Middle East in 2012 and Turkey in 2013. From 2014 to 2015 onward, the disease expanded northwestward to southeast Europe and northeastward, affecting the Caucasus countries the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan (2016) (1). Here, we report the complete coding sequence of an LSDV strain (Kubash/KAZ/16) isolated from the first and only outbreak reported in the Atyrau Region of Kazakhstan.…”