Mandela's lost province: the African national congress and the Western Cape electorate in the 1994 South African elections

Eldridge, Matt; Seekings, Jeremy

doi:10.1080/03057079608708510

Cited by 26 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…What evidence would allow us to test these important claims? The strength of linkages between ethnicity and party voting has been examined in African societies by qualitative examination of particular election campaigns, and by comparing aggregate election results at district level (see, for example, Ojo 1981;Reynolds 1994;Christopher 1996;Ake 1996;Eldridge and Seekings 1996;Takougang 1996;Ayee 1997;Mozaffar 1997Mozaffar , 1998Burnell 2002;Smith 2002). Research has also focused upon how far plurality, majoritarian, or proportional electoral arrangements can best accommodate ethnic parties (Rabushka and Shepsle 1972;Lijphart 1978Lijphart , 1994Lijphart , 1999Barkan 1998;Reynolds and Reilly 1997;Sisk and Reynolds 1998;Reilly and Reynolds 1998;Scarritt, McMillan and Mozaffar 2001), as well as upon longitudinal trends in ethnic conflict in Africa and around the world (Gurr 1993(Gurr , 2000Saideman et al 2002).…”

Section: Theories Of Voting Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Ethnicity Determine Support for the Governing Party? The Structural and Attitudinal Basis of Partisan Identification in 12 African Nations

Norris

Mattes

2003

SSRN Journal

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Structural theories predict that the cues of social identity, particularly ethnicity, should exert a strong influence upon voting choices and party support in developing societies which are characterized by low levels of education and minimal access to the news media. To explore these issues, this study seeks to analyze the influence of ethno-linguistic and ethno-racial characteristics on identification with the governing party in a dozen African states. Ethnicity is compared with other structural and attitudinal factors commonly used to explain patterns of partisanship in many countries. The study draws upon the first round of the Afrobarometer, a cross-national representative survey of political and social values conducted in 1999-2001 in twelve nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from Botswana to Zimbabwe. We establish three main findings. (i) Even with social and attitudinal controls, ethnicity is a significant predictor of party support in most, although not all, African societies under comparison. (ii) Yet the strength of this association varies cross-nationally, with the linkages strongest in societies divided by many languages, such as Namibia and South Africa, while playing an insignificant role in African countries where ethno-linguistic groups are more homogeneous, including Lesotho and Botswana. (iiii) Moreover structural explanations are limited: evaluations of the policy performance of the party in government also influenced patterns of party support, even with prior social controls. The conclusion summarizes the results and considers their broader implications for understanding the political role of ethnicity within plural societies.

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Section: Theories Of Voting Behaviormentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Ethnicity Determine Support for the Governing Party? The Structural and Attitudinal Basis of Partisan Identification in 12 African Nations

Norris

Mattes

2003

SSRN Journal

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“…5 Many scholars saw the 1994 election results as evidence that voting in South Africa had proved to be a largely ascriptive process in which voters made decisions as groups rather than as individuals (Eldridge and Seeking, 1996). This argument is consistent with the 'ascriptive voting' viewpoint adopted by Horowitz (1985) in his socialpsychological account of ethnic voting and ethnic parties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Racial, Ethnic or Rational Voters? Splitting Tickets in South Africa

McLaughlin¹

2008

Politikon

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“…58 This was clearly a veiled reference to the New Nationalist Party (NNP), for whom 46 per cent of the coloured electorate in the Western Cape eventually voted. 59 Among coloured voters, the NNP did particularly well among the unemployed and the underemployed. 60 Many intellectual explanations for the support of the NNP in the Western Cape in 1994 were decidedly deterministic, and saw coloured voting patterns as a reflection of alleged 'swart gevaar' ('black peril') tactics on the part of the NNP.…”

Section: Muslims Facing the Post-apartheid Eramentioning

confidence: 97%