Does Ethnicity Determine Support for the Governing Party? The Structural and Attitudinal Basis of Partisan Identification in 12 African Nations

Abstract

Structural theories predict that the cues of social identity, particularly ethnicity, should exert a strong influence upon voting choices and party support in developing societies which are characterized by low levels of education and minimal access to the news media. To explore these issues, this study seeks to analyze the influence of ethno-linguistic and ethno-racial characteristics on identification with the governing party in a dozen African states. Ethnicity is compared with other structural and attitudinal factors commonly used to explain patterns of partisanship in many countries. The study draws upon the first round of the Afrobarometer, a cross-national representative survey of political and social values conducted in 1999-2001 in twelve nations in Sub-Saharan Africa, ranging from Botswana to Zimbabwe. We establish three main findings. (i) Even with social and attitudinal controls, ethnicity is a significant predictor of party support in most, although not all, African societies under comparison. (ii) Yet the strength of this association varies cross-nationally, with the linkages strongest in societies divided by many languages, such as Namibia and South Africa, while playing an insignificant role in African countries where ethno-linguistic groups are more homogeneous, including Lesotho and Botswana. (iiii) Moreover structural explanations are limited: evaluations of the policy performance of the party in government also influenced patterns of party support, even with prior social controls. The conclusion summarizes the results and considers their broader implications for understanding the political role of ethnicity within plural societies.

Fertilizer and votes: Does strategic economic policy explain the 2009 Malawi election?

“…While the premise of ethnic-identity voting is straightforward, you vote for the candidate/party from your ethnic group, few studies suggest that this is the sole-determinant of vote-choice in Africa. While authors such as Norris and Mattes (2003), Bratton andKimenyi (2008), Eifertetl al. (2010) or Osei-Hwedi (1998) note the importance of ethnicity in electoral outcomes in certain countries, other authors, such as Basedau and Stroh (2012), Batty (2011) or Lindberg and Morrison (2008) find little evidence that ethnicity drives electoral choice.…”

From the Great Lakes to the Great Rift Valley: Does Strategic Economic Policy Explain the 2009 Malawi Election?

“…While the premise of ethnic-identity voting is straight-forward, you vote for the candidate/party from your ethnic group, few studies suggest that this is the sole-determinant of vote-choice in Africa. While authors such as Norris and Mattes (2003), Bratton and Kimenyi (2008), Eifertetl al. (2010) or Osei-Hwedi (1998) note the importance of ethnicity in electoral outcomes in certain countries other authors such as Basedau and Stroh (2012), Batty (2011) or Lindberg and Morrison (2008) find little evidence that ethnicity drives electoral choice.…”

What Affects the Strength of Partisan Identity in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

“…This is because of the emergence of post‐materialism, which has produced an issue‐oriented (as opposed to a cleavage oriented) electorate. As a result, subsequent partisan de‐alignment has occurred as voters become increasingly disconnected with parties whose very foundations were based on the social and economic cleavages of the “materialist” era of the earlier part of the twentieth century (Crewe and Denver 1985; Dalton, Flanagan, and Beck 1984; Dalton and Wattenberg 2000; Evans 1999; Franklin and Mackie 1992; Norris 2002, 2003).…”

“…However, recently greater attention has been paid to understanding the development of partisanship in new democracies (Aguilar and Pacek 2000; Bohrer, Pacek, and Radcliff 2000). Further, in the African context, some recent studies have examined partisanship (Kuenzi and Lambright 2005; Norris and Mattes 2003). Nonetheless, by and large, these studies have only examined which parties’ voters in Africa prefer (Kuenzi and Lambright 2005) or the level of support for the governing party (Norris and Mattes 2003) as opposed to explaining the intensity of partisan attachments.…”

“…Further, in the African context, some recent studies have examined partisanship (Kuenzi and Lambright 2005; Norris and Mattes 2003). Nonetheless, by and large, these studies have only examined which parties’ voters in Africa prefer (Kuenzi and Lambright 2005) or the level of support for the governing party (Norris and Mattes 2003) as opposed to explaining the intensity of partisan attachments. Knowing the intensity of partisan attachment in Africa provides some sense of the extent to which political parties are taking root in Africa.…”