Managing technical risks in <scp>PV</scp> investments: How to quantify the impact of risk mitigation measures for different <scp>PV</scp> project phases?

Jahn, U.; Herz, Magnus; Moser, David; Belluardo, Giorgio; Richter, Mauricio

doi:10.1002/pip.2970

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

(10 reference statements)

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“…In addition to failures, there are also other technical risks during operation caused by varying performance loss rates as analysed in previous studies 13,14 . How to respond to these risks with preventive or corrective actions is discussed by Jahn et al 15,16 In the following, these evaluation processes are classified into semi‐quantitative and quantitative methods with a focus on photovoltaics. This chapter gives an insight into common methods used, how technical risks in PV plants can be evaluated and minimised and provides recommendations for best practices.…”

Section: Common Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Identify, analyse and mitigate—Quantification of technical risks in PV power systems

Herz

Friesen

Jahn³

et al. 2022

Progress in Photovoltaics

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Technical risks are important criteria to consider when investing in new and existing PV installations. Quantitative knowledge of these risks is one of the key factors for the different stakeholders, such as asset managers, banks or project developers, to make reliable business decisions before and during the operation of their PV assets. Within the IEA PVPS Task 13 Expert Group, we aim to increase the knowledge on methodologies to assess technical risks and mitigation measures in terms of economic impact and effectiveness. The developed outline provides a reproducible and transparent technique to manage the complexity of risk analysis and processing in order to establish a common practice for professional risk assessment. Semi‐quantitative and quantitative methodologies are introduced to assess technical risks in PV power systems and provide examples of common technical risks described and rated in the new created PV failure fact sheets (PVFS). Besides the PVFS based on expert knowledge and expert opinion, an update on the statistics of the PV failure degradation survey is given. With the knowledge acquired and data collected, the risk and cost–benefit analysis is demonstrated in a case study that shows methods for prioritising decisions from an economic perspective and provided important results for risk managing strategies.

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Section: Common Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Identify, analyse and mitigate—Quantification of technical risks in PV power systems

Herz

Friesen

Jahn³

et al. 2022

Progress in Photovoltaics

Self Cite

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“…Other studies on PV reliability have focused mainly on the study of PV module failure modes and degradation rates [10,[24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31], the development of testing methodology [22,43,44] and investment risk management [45][46][47][48]. To our knowledge, none of the literature to date has proposed a method to assess the adequacy of WF of PV manufacturers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Credible Is the 25-Year Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Warranty?—A Techno-Financial Evaluation and Implications for the Sustainable Development of the PV Industry

Hsi,

Shieh

2024

Sustainability

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To support the bankability of PV projects, PV manufacturers have been offering some of the longest warranties in the world, typically in the range of 25–30 years. During the warranty period, PV manufacturers guarantee that the degradation of PV modules will not exceed 0.4–0.6% each year, or the buyer can at any time make a claim to the manufacturer for replacement or compensation for the shortfall. Due to PV popularity, the performance warranty terms have become more and more competitive each year. However, long-term PV operating data are very limited, and the bankruptcy of PV manufacturers has been quite common. Without a proper methodology to assess the adequacy of the warranty fund (WF) reserves of PV manufacturers, the 25-year performance warranty can reflect an empty promise. To ensure sustainable development of the PV industry, this study develops a probability-weighted expected value method to determine the necessary WF reserve based on benchmark field degradation data and a prevailing degradation cap of 0.55% per year. The simulation results show that, unless the manufacturer’s degradation pattern is significantly better than the benchmark degradation profile, 1.302% of the sales value is required for the WF reserve. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that provides WF reserve requirement estimation for 25-year PV performance warranties. The results will provide transparency for PV investors and motivation for PV manufacturers to engage in continuous quality improvement, as all such achievements can now be reflected in the annual report results of manufacturers.

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“…Particularly in Spain, commercial plants supported by a guaranteed feed‐in tariff were built. Here, it is necessary to highlight that the key aspect in the development and implementation of controls of the STC power in PV projects was the financing format widely spread in the sector, the “Project Finance.” In this type of financing, the guarantee for the financial institution in case of nonpayment is the PV plant itself, and therefore, the owner/developer was required to implement mechanisms to assess and reduce technical risks in the PV projects, such as the quality control of the modules.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control of the STC power in PV modules' supplies for utility scale plants

Pérez

Coello

Lorenzo

2019

Progress in Photovoltaics

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This article presents a specific procedure to control the standard test conditions (STC) power in photovoltaic (PV) modules. It also shows the results of its application on a supply of approximately 700 000 multicrystalline p‐type silicon BSF technology PV modules made by a worldwide known manufacturer (Tier‐1, Q4 2015). First, during the manufacturing process, the analysis of the STC power measurements of the whole supply carried out by the modules' manufacturer is included, where the quality of these measurements was evaluated through a comparative contrast study in an independent laboratory on a sample of 4000 modules. In addition, the light‐induced degradation (LID) on 180 modules and the resistance to the potential induced degradation (PID) in a sample of 125 modules were characterized and critically analyzed. Secondly, during operation phase, the analysis of the STC power after the first 2 years of operation of the modules in desert conditions was also included. These measurements were carried out on a sample of 2000 modules making use of an accredited mobile laboratory. The overall results showed the effectiveness of the implementation of the aforementioned procedure, which is based on the use of a set of reference modules (primary standards) with common calibration origin. It proved to be an effective way of reducing uncertainties all along the quality control process. The susceptibility to PID, as observed on the PID test (chamber method) specified in IEC TS 62804, was practically negligible, and the average LID degradation after 20 kWh/m2 of exposition to the sun was 1.5%. Finally, the degradation rate in the second year of operation was 0.32% with respect to the initial degradation occurred during the whole first year.

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Managing technical risks in PV investments: How to quantify the impact of risk mitigation measures for different PV project phases?

Cited by 9 publications

References 8 publications

Identify, analyse and mitigate—Quantification of technical risks in PV power systems

Identify, analyse and mitigate—Quantification of technical risks in PV power systems

How Credible Is the 25-Year Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Warranty?—A Techno-Financial Evaluation and Implications for the Sustainable Development of the PV Industry

Control of the STC power in PV modules' supplies for utility scale plants

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