Identify, analyse and mitigate—Quantification of technical risks in PV power systems

Abstract

Technical risks are important criteria to consider when investing in new and existing PV installations. Quantitative knowledge of these risks is one of the key factors for the different stakeholders, such as asset managers, banks or project developers, to make reliable business decisions before and during the operation of their PV assets. Within the IEA PVPS Task 13 Expert Group, we aim to increase the knowledge on methodologies to assess technical risks and mitigation measures in terms of economic impact and effectiveness. The developed outline provides a reproducible and transparent technique to manage the complexity of risk analysis and processing in order to establish a common practice for professional risk assessment. Semi‐quantitative and quantitative methodologies are introduced to assess technical risks in PV power systems and provide examples of common technical risks described and rated in the new created PV failure fact sheets (PVFS). Besides the PVFS based on expert knowledge and expert opinion, an update on the statistics of the PV failure degradation survey is given. With the knowledge acquired and data collected, the risk and cost–benefit analysis is demonstrated in a case study that shows methods for prioritising decisions from an economic perspective and provided important results for risk managing strategies.

Impact of Climate Change on Photovoltaic Performance: Case Study in French Cities

“…Also, constant high temperatures are detrimental to bypass diode and junction box function and can increase failure rates. [62] Then, investigating the climate change effects on failures would complete this study to more accurately assess PV performance in warmer weather conditions.…”

“…Also, constant high temperatures are detrimental to bypass diode and junction box function and can increase failure rates. [ 62 ]…”

Towards the development of an optimized Decision Support System for the PV industry: A comprehensive statistical and economical assessment of over 35,000 O&M tickets

“…When applying different scenarios, different detection and mitigation measures can be weighed against each other to evaluate the most cost effective solution. Recently, insightful studies have been conducted looking into inverter failure, PID and soiling mitigation strategies by Herz et al 22 and defective bypass diodes, PID and cell cracks detected by using electroluminescence imaging by Koester et al 24 Nevertheless, these studies are still based on a scenario‐based analysis.…”

“…Most of the investigated systems have been installed in the early 2010s, a probable reason as to why modern module issues such as light and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LeTID) are not reported. Nevertheless, based on statistics regarding the appearance of degradation from literature, 15,19,22,23 it can be assumed that far more performance while others are more prone to issues, which is ultimately also reflected in the tickets. This can have various reasons, among others the complexity of the PV project, the quality of used components, terrain conditions, the O&M strategy itself, and the quality of the design and installation phase.…”

“…Most of the investigated systems have been installed in the early 2010s, a probable reason as to why modern module issues such as light and elevated temperature‐induced degradation (LeTID) are not reported. Nevertheless, based on statistics regarding the appearance of degradation from literature, 15,19,22,23 it can be assumed that far more performance impairing issues on PV module level have occurred than have been recorded. Nevertheless, due to their minor performance impact on plant level, it is possible that they have not been detected or treated due to low priority.…”