Managerial insights from service industry models: a new scenario decomposition method

Borgonovo, Emanuele; Peccati, Lorenzo

doi:10.1007/s10479-009-0617-1

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…This approach has been recently applied to assess the sensitivity of long-term CO 2 emissions to the different drivers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Marangoni et al [38]). Further application areas include those in operational decision-making [39,40].…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Martínez

Blanco

2019

Water

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Future agricultural development will be challenged by the impacts of climate change on water, which are expected to be particularly strong in southern European regions. Thus, exploring interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Nevertheless, studies that address future agriculture development focus on climate-induced changes in crop productivity and often disregard the water dimension. In this research, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis of agricultural development to drivers of water use in Andalusia in 2050 based on outcomes from the CAPRI-Water model. The results from the analysis show that water cost is the most determinant factor in shaping agricultural land, offsetting the impact of the driver of water availability. In contrast, irrigation water use is driven not only by water cost but also by irrigation efficiency. The magnitude of the sensitivity to these drivers differs significantly across crops. Policies aimed at improving resource use efficiency can contribute to strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacity of future agricultural systems to climate change. To achieve this goal, the policies must consider crop sensitivity to irrigation costs and the potential rebound effect.

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Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Martínez

Blanco

2019

Water

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“…A sensitivity analysis method should make it possible to obtain the following insights: In order to answer the above questions quantitatively, we utilize a generalization of the factor separation method (Stein and Alpert, 1983). For technical details and a rigorous mathematical derivation, we refer to the works of Efron andStein (1981), Sobol' (1993), Rabitz and Alis (1999), Borgonovo (2010), and Borgonovo and Peccati (2011).…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis At Finite Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then, by the factor separation method extended to factor groups (Sobol', 1993;Borgonovo and Peccati, 2011), one can write…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis At Finite Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

Ceppi

Ravazzani

Salandin

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes. After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation. In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event. In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast. Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin. The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall–runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano.

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“…Many researchers utilize scenario analysis to test alternative combinations of the exogenous variables in order to create robust schedules. In so doing, the decision makers are provided with the effects of the variability of the decision-support criterion (Borgonovo & Peccati, 2011). Corominas, Lusa and Pastor (2004; formulate a mixed integer linear programming model to allocate the workforce, considering annualized hours.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A three-stage approach for aircraft line maintenance personnel rostering using MIP, discrete event simulation and DEA

Bergh¹,

Bruecker

Beliën³

et al. 2013

Expert Systems with Applications

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Personnel scheduling problems need to cope with personnel preferences, coverage constraints, legal restrictions, and many other constraints. We present a three-stage methodology that can be used to select personnel rosters. In the first stage we generate multiple personnel rosters with a mathematical programming model. In the second stage, the performance of the rosters regarding a number of service criteria is evaluated through discrete event simulation. In the third stage, a ranking is made using Data Envelopment Analysis. The methodology is tested on a personnel scheduling problem for aircraft line maintenance. 2

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Managerial insights from service industry models: a new scenario decomposition method

Cited by 11 publications

References 39 publications

Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

A three-stage approach for aircraft line maintenance personnel rostering using MIP, discrete event simulation and DEA

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