Sensitivity of Agricultural Development to Water-Related Drivers: The Case of Andalusia (Spain)

Abstract

Future agricultural development will be challenged by the impacts of climate change on water, which are expected to be particularly strong in southern European regions. Thus, exploring interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change is essential to frame informed policies that ensure sustainable water management while enhancing food production. Nevertheless, studies that address future agriculture development focus on climate-induced changes in crop productivity and often disregard the water dimension. In this research, we have conducted a sensitivity analysis of agricultural development to drivers of water use in Andalusia in 2050 based on outcomes from the CAPRI-Water model. The results from the analysis show that water cost is the most determinant factor in shaping agricultural land, offsetting the impact of the driver of water availability. In contrast, irrigation water use is driven not only by water cost but also by irrigation efficiency. The magnitude of the sensitivity to these drivers differs significantly across crops. Policies aimed at improving resource use efficiency can contribute to strengthening the resilience and adaptation capacity of future agricultural systems to climate change. To achieve this goal, the policies must consider crop sensitivity to irrigation costs and the potential rebound effect.

Integrating Stakeholder Views and System Dynamics to Assess the Water–Energy–Food Nexus in Andalusia

“…In our research, we modelled short-(2020), medium-(2030 and 2040), and long-term (by 2050) projections for the baseline and scenarios. The data used to populate the model are based and aligned on previous studies and models [45,53,[63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72]. The baseline scenario is aligned with the foreseeable evolution of agricultural and industrial markets [69], current agricultural policy [70], and IPCC climate scenarios [71,72].…”

“…The analysis of these policies was identified by the stakeholders and mentioned by different authors (Expósito [43], Iglesias and Blanco [73], Fernández García et al [52]) as one of the most relevant for the region. However, we have to be cautious performing such an analysis since "projections on water use and water costs are highly uncertain" (Martínez and Blanco [64]).…”

“…This version enables the exploration of the likely impacts of climate change and water availability on agriculture at the regional level in Europe, as well as the effects of the implementation of policy measures such as water pricing (Blanco et al [63]). CAPRI-Water was applied to Andalusia in a previous study by Martínez and Blanco [64], which allowed the authors to test and improve the CAPRI data for this region. In the present work, since the water-agriculture interlinkage is one of the most crucial components of the nexus in Andalusia, a number of simulations with CAPRI-Water were undertaken to feed the SDM.…”

The trilemma of food production, clean energy, and water: COP27 perspective of global economy

“…Droughts and unpredictable rainfall in SSA require soil water conservation interventions to achieve high WP in rain‐fed agriculture (Lamptey, 2022). Finally, sustainable water management policies addressing the interrelations between agriculture and water under climate change are necessary to enhance food production while ensuring sustainable water management (Martinez & Blanco, 2019). Such policies should consider the water dimension in agricultural development planning, including irrigation infrastructure investment, improving water resource management, and adopting innovative irrigation technologies.…”

The physical and chemical properties of the technosols in the pot experiment with waste and groundwater irrigation

“…Precipitations are scarce and erratic and limit water availability for irrigation in Andalusia (Martinez & Blanco, 2019). The climate models create prerequisites addressing different kinds of environmental monitoring and analysis (Blanco, 2017;Bárcena -Martín et al, 2020).…”