Management of the Biofuel Production Development on the Basis of Scenario Planning

Abstract

The aim of the article is to substantiate the methodological approaches of scenario planning in the management of biofuel production development. The following methods were used in order to achieve the goal: cross-factor analysis, scenario planning method, expert methods, and scenario tree. The study analyzed primary energy consumption by economic sector and the total supply of primary energy by source, resulting in a declining supply of non-renewable energy sources such as oil, gas, coal and growing supply of biomass and waste, which was a source of biofuel production. The grouping of biofuel properties from the point of view of its attractiveness as an alternative energy resource was carried out. Factors that can negatively affect the pace of development of biofuel production are systematized. Dominant factors that had a critical impact on the development of biofuels have been identified: fluctuations in prices for electricity production in the traditional way, change in the popularity of greenhouse gas emission reduction programs, fluctuations in the use of electric vehicles, fluctuations in prices for fossil fuels, change in funding for programs to reduce environmental pollution and climate change. Stages of scenario planning with the use of cross-factor analysis were offered. A scenario tree model was formed. A matrix of cross-influence was constructed using expert evaluation and a scale of relations. The procedure of cross-influence and determination of dominant factors influencing the development of the activity “biofuel production” was proposed, which was characterized by the use of cross-factor analysis, which allowed assessing the probability of scenarios, establishing the interaction between them, and further calculating the expected effect from the implementation of measures. Applied research results and scenario assessments of the development potential of this area of activity can be used by entrepreneurs in the context of development and further implementation of investment projects for biofuel production.

Análise do uso de Biocombustíveis como Fonte Alternativa para Combustíveis Fósseis

“…Ao retratar fontes alternativas citando biocombustíveis, pensa-se em antecipar um futuro escasso de combustíveis fósseis, uma vez que são limitados e, com isso, adquirir ferramentas para substituir uma demanda energética que cresce de forma exponencial [6][7][8][9][10]. Para tal substituição é necessário um novo modo de pensamento onde pelo menos uma etapa será adicionada ao processo: formação, que seria a ideia de construir usinas e cultivar alimentos para produzir o biocombustível; não mais apenas extração dos recursos do planeta, do petróleo no caso, para depois refinar (onde é efetivamente a produção de combustível) e distribuir [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20].…”

Optimization of the real conversion efficiency of waste cooking oil to fame

“…To date, the international agency of energy expects a significantly increase in energy consumption [3], estimating that for the year 2030 it should be 11 861 million of tons, that means an increase of 22.8% higher than in 2015. On the other hand, it is estimated that the consumption of biofuels would be almost twice that in 2015, that is, from 57 to 105 million tons [4,5]. Moreover, it is expected that the energy use by means of biofuels will reach 109.4 million barrels per day by 2040 [6].…”