Malaysia Road Accidents Influences Based on Structural Time Series Analysis

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin; Rahman, Rosmanjawati Abdul

doi:10.18576/amis/110409

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Although there revealed several consistent results, nevertheless, the results could not be generalized since they are conducted in difference geographical characteristics. Supporting this, a recent study of [20] concluded that the effects of RTAs in different regions vary due to the unique characteristics in climate effect, economic effect, and influences of calendar effects for each region. The important findings from the above discussions is that although most of the studies have had assigned the RTAs to the human behaviour, nevertheless, other factors such as road factors, and vehicle factors are also seen to have effect on RTAs.…”

Section: Road Traffic Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 89%

https://www.ijitee.org/portfolio-item/A4149119119/

Zahidy,

Sutanto,

Napiah

et al. 2019

IJITEE

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As with the most of middle-income countries, road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Malaysia constitute a serious public health challenge to the nation. Despite the fact that great efforts have been made to understand the causation factors of RTAs, little is known about how road service quality (RSQ) impacted road safety. The primary objective of the current study was to explore the relationships of RSQ and RTAs from the viewpoint of the Malaysian road users. The study employed a quantitative research approach with the use of a self-administered questionnaire instrument to survey a group of road users. In particular, this paper reports the first phase of the study, that is, to develop and administer an instrument to measure the relationships of RSQ and RTAs. A two phased approach was undertaken to determine face and content validity, and reliability of this instrument. The face and content validity were achieved by assembling a panel of academia and industry practitioners to ensure that wording of the items, and the development of the scale, were comprehensible for data inquiries. Reliability and internal consistency testing were achieved by employing the exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to model the interrelationships among items, and Cronbach’s alpha to evaluate the extent to which the items measure the same construct. Then, the instrument was pilot-tested by administration to a convenience-quota sample of 24 road users who stopped at the rest and service areas along the case study expressway. The results have pointed to the indication that the measurement instrument reached the accepted levels of internal reliability. Thus, it can be concluded that the developed instrument able to collect sound quality survey data and could enable the next stage of the study draws a valid and generalized conclusion. This paper highlighted the value of pilot testing in terms of improving the design of research studies that contributes to the development of best practices in RTAs research. Finally, the outcomes of the study should become a source for policy makers or local authorities to have better understanding of the safety outcomes of road service quality from which the prevention measures of RTAs could be improved.

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Section: Road Traffic Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 89%

https://www.ijitee.org/portfolio-item/A4149119119/

Zahidy,

Sutanto,

Napiah

et al. 2019

IJITEE

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Box-Jenkins and State Space Model in Forecasting Malaysia Road Accident Cases

Husin

Afdzal

Azmi

et al. 2021

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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Road accident is one of the main causes of death and injury worldwide in this fast-paced modern world. Many developing countries, including Malaysia, are facing serious road accident problems. Forecasting road accident cases has become an important step towards setting the road safety target. Hence, this study aims to develop forecasting models and forecast future trends of monthly road accident cases in Malaysia. The data set on monthly number of accident cases from January 2001 to December 2019 was provided by Polis Diraja Malaysia (PDRM). Box-Jenkins and State space models were developed using the data under study. The models were then evaluated based on in-sample and out-sample evaluation using lowest root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. The results show that the basic structural state space model with trend and seasonal component was the most appropriate model in forecasting road accident cases in Malaysia. The 10-year ahead forecast from January 2020 to December 2030 shows that monthly road accident cases in Malaysia have a constant inclining pattern for each year. It is hoped that the finding from this study could become a reference for the authorities of Malaysia in making recommendations in order to improve road safety and reduce road traffic accidents in Malaysia.

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Malaysia Road Accidents Influences Based on Structural Time Series Analysis

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

https://www.ijitee.org/portfolio-item/A4149119119/

https://www.ijitee.org/portfolio-item/A4149119119/

Box-Jenkins and State Space Model in Forecasting Malaysia Road Accident Cases

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