This paper investigates the existence of security price anomalies, or 'calendar effects' in the Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Shares Index over a 60 year period: 1 July 1935 through 31 December 1994. Our results broadly support similar evidence documented for many countries concerning stock market anomalies, as the weekend, January and holiday effects all appear, to some extent, to be present in our data set. We conclude, that even if these anomalies are persistent in their occurrence and magnitude, the cost of implementing any potential 'trading rules' may be prohibitive due to the illiquidity of the market and 'round trip' transactions costs. This is of course perfectly consistent with the notion of market efficiency, in that no strategy exists that will consistently yield abnormal returns.
Abstract. One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.
Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.
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