Make It or Break It: Vaccination Intent at the Time of COVID-19

Bughin, Jacques; Cincera, Michele; Peters, Kelly; Reykowska, Dorota; Żyszkiewicz, Marcin; Ohme, Rafał

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3757618

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Considering our baseline and summing the marginal probabilities (sum = 97% to re-calibrate them to 100%), just below 21% of German citizens would refuse to be vaccinated. This is in line with other preference studies regarding German citizens, conducted as early as of April 2020 (see [ 12 , 30 ]), even if that research has some shortcoming (e.g., preferences were stated, and not derived from preference trade-off in a conjoint, and were expressed at a time where no vaccine was in sight). But all those studies converge to the true importance of the value of waiting in case of a new vaccine: It can represent 1/3 of the implied citizens' preferences.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Regarding vaccine intention, it seems that the German attitude is relatively close to other European countries, and if anything, on the lower side (see [ 30 ]). Germany has, for instance, a relatively large portion of citizens hesitating to get vaccinated, and most studies conclude a vaccination intention, systematically below 70% [ 12 ].…”

Section: Scope and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we consider vaccine effectiveness as a core attribute driving the extent of vaccination intention. The health benefits of a vaccine should balance the health risk of the virus [ 12 ]. We consider two extremes and plausible cases in the conjoint.…”

Section: Scope and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another route is to reboot the institutional trust to government actions. Still, trust has been easily lost in the recent change of policies during this year of COVID-19 pandemic, and confidence will not be easy to recreate [ 12 , 29 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2022

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This research uses discrete choice-based conjoint analysis that elicits the preference structure of German citizens when it comes to their timely intention to vaccinate. The focus is on the trade-offs between pharmaceuticals (vaccine) and "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs) such as lock-downs and social distancing measures, as well as the value of voluntary versus mandatory compliance to the citizens. Our results highlight three critical insights: (a) value of waiting: at 70% effective vaccine, 1/3 of citizens still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next 6 months rather than immediately; (b) costs of NPI constraints: an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by invasive NPI imposed for an extended period; (c) freedom of choice: voluntary compliance is preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lock-down measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, a quick shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€. Still, the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. At the same time, the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1500–2500€, depending on the rule analyzed. In comparison, the burden of extra complete lock-down and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lock-downs will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Scope and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scope and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

et al. 2022

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“…Our paper is part of a growing literature that examines the drivers of behavioral responses to COVID-19, including whether or not to get vaccinated. 3 Using an online survey of 6 European countries conducted in April of 2020, Neumann-Böhme et al (2020) and Bughin et al (2021) argue that vaccination preferences are shaped by individual perceptions of benefits and risks, which in turn depend on information from peers and trusted institutions. Lazarus et al (2021) also find large cross-country heterogeneity in vaccine hesitancy in surveys completed in June of 2020, with higher acceptance rates in countries with stronger trust in government.…”

Section: Relationship To the Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19

Dabla‐Norris¹,

Sollaci²,

Lima³

et al. 2021

IMF Working Papers

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Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London to empirically examine the determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time. Vaccine demand depends on demographic features such as age and gender, but also on perceptions about the severity of COVID-19 and side effects of the vaccine, vaccine access, compliance with protective behaviors, overall trust in government, and how information is shared with peers. We then introduce vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics. We find that hesitancy can increase COVID-19 infections and deaths significantly if it slows down vaccine rollouts, but has a smaller impact if all willing adults can be immunized rapidly.

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Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era

Hayakawa

2022

The Developing Economies

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This paper examines how COVID‐19 vaccinations change international trade. We analyze monthly level trade data from January 2020 to March 2022 that cover the bilateral exports from 40 reporting countries to 220 partner countries. Our findings can be summarized as follows. On average, the effects of vaccination rates in importing and exporting countries on exports were found to be insignificant. When considering the income level, we also did not find significant effects of vaccination rates in high‐ and low‐income importing countries on exports. In contrast, the rise of vaccination rates in low‐income exporting countries significantly increased their exports though no significant increase in exports was detected when vaccination rates rose in high‐income exporting countries. These results imply that since low‐income countries are mainly engaged in labor‐intensive industries, the relaxation of lockdown orders (i.e., movement and gathering restrictions) driven by the rise of vaccination rates plays a crucial role in production activities in low‐income countries.

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Make It or Break It: Vaccination Intent at the Time of COVID-19

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19

Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era

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