Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This research uses discrete choice-based conjoint analysis that elicits the preference structure of German citizens when it comes to their timely intention to vaccinate. The focus is on the trade-offs between pharmaceuticals (vaccine) and "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (NPIs) such as lock-downs and social distancing measures, as well as the value of voluntary versus mandatory compliance to the citizens. Our results highlight three critical insights: (a) value of waiting: at 70% effective vaccine, 1/3 of citizens still would prefer to be vaccinated in the next 6 months rather than immediately; (b) costs of NPI constraints: an effective vaccine may come as a solution to compensate for the costs induced by invasive NPI imposed for an extended period; (c) freedom of choice: voluntary compliance is preferred by citizens over imposed measures whether it relates to vaccination choice, lock-down measures, or work location choice during the pandemic. Backing up those findings in monetary value, a quick shot of a 100% effective vaccination is estimated to be worth in the range of 11,400€. Still, the value of the shot quickly falls to no value when effectiveness drops below 50. At the same time, the cost of imposing protective rules lies in the range of 1500–2500€, depending on the rule analyzed. In comparison, the burden of extra complete lock-down and social distancing is about 775€ per citizen per month. As most current vaccines are being proven to have high efficacy, a strategy that selects the most effective vaccine candidates while emphasizing how the vaccine may stop the pain of lasting lock-downs will be appropriate to nudge the population towards vaccination. Control measures that are too restrictive may be welfare-deteriorating, but enough NPI measures must be recommended as long as vaccination adoption is not sufficiently large.

Impact of Dark Triad Personality Traits on COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake and Prevention Efforts: Insights from the European Covid Survey (ECOS)

“…Agusto et al [1] study (rational) behavior of susceptible individuals in the context of social distancing to explain the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Beyond previous results, Bughin et al [10] highlight the trade-off between vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing as individuals balance these two types of prevention to protect against COVID-19. Furthermore, Sabat et al [56] Ąnd evidence for vaccination hesitancy as the most unstable vaccine intention with on average 42% of ever-hesitant individuals remaining hesitant in future waves.…”

Beyond purchase intention in sports sponsorship: an alternative approach to measuring brand equity using best-worst scaling

“…Such a strategy should not be underestimated because this tool allows a sophisticated negotiator to estimate, with some confidence, just how much of these benefits will accrue. For example, conjoint analysis, such as that used in this paper, has been applied in the valuation of environmental resources (Alriksson and Öberg, 2008), in legal copyright cases to determine the range of royalty payments due (Sidak and Skog, 2016) and, more recently, in estimating the financial value of the convenience and efficacy of COVID treatments (Bughin et al , 2022; Hosogaya et al , 2021). Of course, all forecast estimates are subject to caveats, e.g.…”