Major challenges to achieving food security in rural, Iran

Ataei, Pouria; Sadighi, Hassan; Izadi, Nasim

doi:10.1080/10371656.2021.1895471

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…With continuing economic growth and increasing aggregate demand for grain, related studies also illustrate that supply-side reforms in grain are significant in developing countries [ 59 , 60 , 61 ]. The paper raises additional possibilities for modeling sustainable grain demand scenarios and production scenarios to ensure food security.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Wang

Qiang

Niu

et al. 2022

Foods

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The transformation of dietary structure brought about by economic development in populous countries is expected to trigger an increase in grain demand, which will put enormous pressure on the grain supply in these nations and even globally. We simulated nine demand scenarios for 2020–2050 based on China’s dataset for 15 kinds of grains from 1961–2018. The results show that the maximum difference between the predicted grain demand is 323.8 Mt, equal to the total grain consumption of approximately 600 million Chinese people in one year. To capture which demand scenarios will be met when grain productivity gradually improves within reasonable ranges, we present three projections from the production side. In particular, Projection 1 (P1), which maintains productivity at the current level, only fulfills the projected demand for Scenarios 1-LL, 2-LM, 4-ML, and 7-HL and falls short of the maximum value (Scenario 9-HH) by 117 Mt, which requires an additional 250,000 ha of arable land resources to fill the gap. After raising the preset value of grain yield, the productivity of Projection 2 in turn satisfies the demand scenario 5-MM. When both set variables (grain yields and arable area) increase simultaneously, the output of Projection 3 increases by 15.3% over P1. However, it still lags behind the demand of 68 million tons in Scenario 9-HH, thus implying uncertainty in China’s vision of meeting the goal of 95% grain self-sufficiency. Rather than pursuing a single outcome, we discuss multiple possibilities for China’s future grain balance and emphasize the adjusting and compensating role of grain trade and storage in the whole system. Ultimately, this paper calls for a better understanding of the supply–demand gap therein and its future trends to support national grain security as well as global sustainable food policies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Wang

Qiang

Niu

et al. 2022

Foods

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In this regard, assuring global food security is substantial to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2), aiming at ending hunger worldwide (UN General Assembly, 2015). Food security has been under research from different points of view, such as drought, flood, crop damage, purchasing power, household income, family size, food self-sufficiency and agricultural and horticultural land size (Ataei et al, 2021;Galiev and Ahrens, 2021). However, Rezaei (2013) in a study in Iran highlighted the role of the government in achieving food security through supporting farmers by compensating agricultural water shortage, increasing the productivity of water supply systems and providing financial support.…”

Section: Monitoring Vegetation Indices 4219mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought assessment in paddy rice fields using remote sensing technology towards achieving food security and SDG2

Esfandabadi

Asl

Esfandabadi

et al. 2022

BFJ

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PurposeThis research aims to monitor vegetation indices to assess drought in paddy rice fields in Mazandaran, Iran, and propose the best index to predict rice yield.Design/methodology/approachA three-step methodology is applied. First, the paddy rice fields are mapped by using three satellite-based datasets, namely SRTM DEM, Landsat8 TOA and MYD11A2. Second, the maps of indices are extracted using MODIS. And finally, the trend of indices over rice-growing seasons is extracted and compared with the rice yield data.FindingsRice paddies maps and vegetation indices maps are provided. Vegetation Health Index (VHI) combining average Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and minimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and also VHI combining TCImin and VCImin are found to be the most proper indices to predict rice yield.Practical implicationsThe results serve as a guideline for policy-makers and practitioners in the agro-food industry to (1) support sustainable agriculture and food safety in terms of rice production; (2) help balance the supply and demand sides of the rice market and move towards SDG2; (3) use yield prediction in the rice supply chain management, pricing and trade flows management; and (4) assess drought risk in index-based insurances.Originality/valueThis study, as one of the first research assessing and mapping vegetation indices for rice paddies in northern Iran, particularly contributes to (1) extracting the map of paddy rice fields in Mazandaran Province by using satellite-based data on cloud-computing technology in the Google Earth Engine platform; (2) providing the map of VCI and TCI for the period 2010–2019 based on MODIS data and (3) specifying the best index to describe rice yield through proposing different calculation methods for VHI.

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“…Addressing food security challenges requires the participation of different sector actors and joint efforts to sustainably improve food insecurity. At a time of dramatic global and local change, policy makers and decision makers face difficult choices in improving food security ( 4 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

External supply risk of agricultural products trade along the Belt and Road under the background of COVID-19

Guo

Wang

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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Agricultural product trade along the Belt and Road (B&R) is an important part of the international food security system, the vulnerabilities of which have been highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the complex network analysis, this study analyzes the characteristics of agricultural products trade network along the B&R. It also combines the effects of COVID-19 with the import trade volume of agricultural products in countries along the B&R to build a risk supply model of agricultural products. The results show that: (1) In 2021, the spatial correlation structure of agricultural products trade along the B&R became increasingly sparse, and the network connectivity and density also decreased. (2) The network showed obvious scale-free distribution characteristics and obvious heterogeneity. Five communities emerged under the influence of the core node countries, but the formation of community in 2021 had obvious geopolitical characteristics. (3) Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of countries with medium-risk and high-risk level along the route facing external dependence risk (REDI), import concentration risk (RHHI) and COVID-19 epidemic risk (RRICI) increased in 2021, and the number of countries with extremely low-risk level decreased. (4) The dominant risk type of external supply of agricultural products along the route changed from compound risk type in 2019 to epidemic risk in 2021. Hence, the results can be expected to prevent external risk impact from reducing excessive concentration of agricultural products trade and excessive dependence on the external market.

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Major challenges to achieving food security in rural, Iran

Cited by 12 publications

References 46 publications

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Drought assessment in paddy rice fields using remote sensing technology towards achieving food security and SDG2

External supply risk of agricultural products trade along the Belt and Road under the background of COVID-19

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