Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Wang, Xiang; Qiang, Wenli; Niu, Shuwen; Growe, Anna; Yan, Simin; Tian, Nan

doi:10.3390/foods11111566

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…Globally, food crop production can only fulfil the demand for the less than one-third of the population [ 1 ]. Furthermore, forces originating from population growth and economic development have stimulated food needs, putting increasing pressure on food production [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of Cropland’s Non-Grain Production and Its Effects on Food Security in China

Wang

Dai

2022

Foods

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Non-grain production of cropland (NGPCL) is a common phenomenon in the process of rapid urbanization in order to meet the diversified food demand and prosperity of the rural economy. However, excessive NGPCL will threaten grain production. How to control the moderate development of NGPCL in order to achieve the balance between food security and rural development has become a salient issue. In this study, we constructed a framework to measure NGPCL, revealed the spatial–temporal pattern of NGPCL, and then analyzed its influencing factors from the perspective of the human–land relationship. The results indicate that, firstly, the overall degree of NGPCL in China experienced an increase from 0.44 to 0.51, while the gap among cities was consistently enlarging, with the range value increasing from 0.74 to 0.91. Secondly, the spatial pattern of NGPCL was high in the northwest and southeast, and low in the northeast and central regions. The southern economic developed area exhibited the highest increase, while the Inner Mongolia, northwest China, and traditional agricultural areas experienced a decreasing trend in NGPCL. Thirdly, the spatial agglomeration of NGPCL has been intensified, with the Gansu–Xinjiang Desert plateau, southeast coastal economic belt, and urban agglomeration areas exhibiting a “high–high” agglomeration, while the traditional agricultural areas exhibited “low–low” agglomeration. Fourthly, NGPCL is positively correlated with the urbanization rate, land fragmentation, landscape diversity, land price, and grain production policy, while it is negatively linked with the agricultural employment rate, agricultural machinery level, and cultivated land per capita. The findings of this research are not only deepen the understanding of NGPCL, but are also of great significance for policy makers in order to propose targeted control measures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of Cropland’s Non-Grain Production and Its Effects on Food Security in China

Wang

Dai

2022

Foods

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“…Despite being a significant factor impacting GD, food waste in the consumption stage was often ignored due to poor data. Many have argued that food waste should be included in prediction of future GD [52,56,57]. In our Equations ( 4), ( 6) and (10), we account for this waste in consumption stage through the parameter C t j .…”

Section: Grain Consumption In Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Aging Population, Balanced Diet and China’s Grain Demand

Hewings

Dou

et al. 2023

Nutrients

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The need to make more accurate grain demand (GD) forecasting has become a major topic in the current international grain security discussion. Our research aims to improve short-term GD prediction by establishing a multi-factor model that integrates the key factors: shifts in dietary structures, population size and age structure, urbanization, food waste, and the impact of COVID-19. These factors were not considered simultaneously in previous research. To illustrate the model, we projected China’s annual GDP from 2022 to 2025. We calibrated key parameters such as conversion coefficients from animal foods to feed grain, standard person consumption ratios, and population size using the latest surveys and statistical data that were either out of date or missing in previous research. Results indicate that if the change in diets continued at the rate as observed during 2013–2019 (scenario 1), China’s GD is projected to be 629.35 million tons in 2022 and 658.16 million tons in 2025. However, if diets shift to align with the recommendations in the Dietary Guideline for Chinese Residents 2022 (scenario 2), GD would be lower by 5.9–11.1% annually compared to scenario 1. A reduction in feed grain accounts for 68% of this change. Furthermore, for every 1 percentage point increase in the population adopting a balanced diet, GD would fall by 0.44–0.73 million tons annually during that period. Overlooking changes in the population age structure could lead to an overprediction of annual GDP by 3.8% from 2022 to 2025. With an aging population, China’s GD would fall slightly, and adopting a balanced diet would not lead to an increase in GD but would have positive impacts on human health and the environment. Our sensitivity analysis indicated that reducing food waste, particularly cereal, livestock, and poultry waste, would have significant effects on reducing GD, offsetting the higher demand due to rising urbanization and higher incomes. These results underscore the significance of simultaneous consideration of multiple factors, particularly the dietary structure and demographic composition, resulting in a more accurate prediction of GD. Our findings should be useful for policymakers concerning grain security, health, and environmental protection.

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“…According to the report on Nutrition and Chronic Diseases in China 2020 [ 18 ], the overweight and obesity rate of Chinese adult residents exceeds 50%, while it is nearly 20% in children and adolescents aged 6–17, and 10% in children under 6 years old. Studies have shown that dietary obesity caused by the imbalance between energy intake and physical activity is an important reason for the increasing incidence of obesity and chronic diseases in China [ 19 , 20 ]. In this context, the relationship between the change in China’s population structure and the change in residents’ energy intake has attracted more and more attention from the government and academia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Does Energy Intake Change in China? A Life Cycle Perspective

Li,

Luo

et al. 2023

Nutrients

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China’s population is showing the characteristics of “fewer children” and “aging”, which will have a long-term and far-reaching impact on the food and nutritional needs of China and the world. In this paper, adult equivalent scale (AES) variables representing the household population structure were introduced into the energy intake model to quantify the impact of population structure changes on energy intake and reveal the characteristics of energy intake changes in the life cycle of Chinese residents. It is found that the change in the population structure has a significant impact on the energy intake of urban households in China, and the elasticity is 0.446. The energy intake of Chinese elderly over the age of 60 shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, especially after the age of 65, which indicates that the aging will promote a decline in food consumption in China. The energy intake of 1–10-year-old children, 22–30 year old, and 40–45 year old women all showed a change of first a decrease and then an increase, which may be related to parents’ care for young children and women with children’s management of body size. The average household size expressed by the adult equivalent scales of energy consumption is 2.341, which is smaller than the 3.052 calculated by the population number. The conclusion indicates that the prediction of the food and nutritional demand should be adjusted according to the changes and differences in accordance with the intensification of “fewer children” and “aging”, as well as the life cycle changes in residents’ energy intake, which is conducive to the formulation of food and nutrition security policies.

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Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Grain Production and Demand in China during the Peak Population Period

Cited by 8 publications

References 50 publications

Identifying the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of Cropland’s Non-Grain Production and Its Effects on Food Security in China

Identifying the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of Cropland’s Non-Grain Production and Its Effects on Food Security in China

Aging Population, Balanced Diet and China’s Grain Demand

How Does Energy Intake Change in China? A Life Cycle Perspective

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