Macroeconomic determinants of permanent emigration from Romania. a Bayesian approach

Abstract

Abstract. Th e aim of this research is to identify some macroeconomic determinants for permanent emigration from Romania, in order to alleviate the negative consequences of this phenomenon in the origin country of the emigrates. For identifying the most relevant macroeconomic factors explaining the growth in the number of emigrants, the stochastic search variable selection was applied for various acceptance probabilities. Low increases in real earnings and the growth in poverty headcount ratio at $3.10 a day encouraged Romanian people to permanently leave the country in the period 1991-2014 in order to improve their life conditions. Moreover, the taxes on income, profi t and capital also created considerable pressure. On the other hand, unemployment was not felt as a crucial problem for emigrants. Th e economic policies should focus on the solutions aimed specifi cally at diminishing poverty.

European economic integration and migration in Romania

“…In countries that depend on remittances, these supported financial growth (the percentage of private credit or deposits in GDP), but also the private sector activity. As emigrants become permanent, the positive effects of remittances reduced (Simionescu, 2016). Moreover, Vogler and Rotte (1998) consider that trade liberalisation and greater openness to FDI can contribute to the development of these countries.…”

“…The empirical studies for Romania identified few determinants of emigration: poverty growth in Romanian regions, higher salaries and better social and economic environment in the destination countries compared to Romania, less risk of unemployment abroad, the perception of less corruption and better business opportunities in the destination countries, positive career expectations etc. (for example, De Sousa & Duval, 2010;Goschin & Roman, 2014;Roman, 2011;Simionescu, 2016). More than 70% of the Romanian people chose Italy and Spain as destination countries.…”

The concept of labour migration from the perspective of Central and Eastern Europe

“…Interdisciplinary studies are scarce in front of Central and Eastern Europe (Simionescu, 2016), so we focused on that area, occasionally highlighting Hungarian features. According to our experience, Hungary is under-researched compared to Poland, which is regarded as its "fellow country".…”

“…It was already indicated above that ethnical background and cultural proximity do count, as countries attempt to lure back their fellows (Hungary-Romania). On the other hand, Simionescu (2016) found that between 1991 and 2014, Romanian people permanently left their home because of low earnings. It also bears some contradiction, since emigrating people are rarely coming from the poorest regions of Romania (Goschin et al, 2013).…”

“…Labour migration is a durable phenomenon which is becoming a long-term challenge for both employers and policymakers (Cseh-Papp et al, 2018;Simionescu, 2016). And this is the starting point in this study.…”