In
this work, we propose a novel multi-scale bottom-up optimization
framework for the carbon-neutral transition planning of the electric
power sector, which incorporates hourly time scale and electricity
storage to address the reliability and energy balance issues of the
future deep-decarbonized power systems. In addition to the technology
and capacity information for each facility, the proposed framework
also accounts for facility ages, which are usually omitted in the
literature, without significantly increasing the computational demand.
To reduce the computational requirement of simultaneously optimizing
capacity planning and hourly systems operations over the next few
decades, a reduced model is developed based on representative days,
using a novel approach that integrates multiple machine learning techniques.
Based on the optimal transition pathways, hourly operational simulations
are conducted for every year within the planning horizon to obtain
detailed optimization results. To illustrate the applicability of
the proposed framework, a case study for the New York State is presented
through two cases, with and without electricity storage capacity expansion.
The proposed approach using principal component analysis coupled with
K-means outcompetes multiple conventional approaches of using clustering
techniques directly. The transition planning results show that the
total generation capacity for the case with electricity capacity expansion
is 39% higher than the other case, while the latter case has 200%
more generation capacity from non-intermittent sources. Detailed hourly
operational simulation results indicate that offshore wind, hydro,
and utility solar are the primary power sources by 2040 for the case
with electricity storage capacity expansion, while hydro, offshore
wind, and nuclear are the main electricity sources for the other case.