Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy

Abstract

In the developing world, the energy needs of the household sector have grown manifold, due to rapid urbanization and the introduction of affordable technology. However, constraints in the power supply and underutilization of renewable resources, coupled with inefficient fuel use and obsolete technology, have increased the average energy usage cost and emissions. Hence, the current study provides a long-term sustainable energy management plan for the urban household, in terms of energy savings, social cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. To address energy security and climate change challenges, a demand-side management scenario (DSM) is proposed through integration of efficient policies and nationally determined contributions. On the basis of policy analysis and energy consumption patterns, macro-economic modeling was carried out for the period 2011–2050, using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling tool. Results show that the “efficient water heating” scenario offers the maximum energy-saving potential (up to 270 M.TOE) whereas “efficient space cooling” is the lowest-cost scenario. To achieve the best-fit mitigation scenario (MIT), targets for renewable energy supply were also incorporated. Findings were weighed against the reference scenario (REF), which reveals a huge GHG reduction under the DSM. Moreover, the cost required to implement MIT is estimated to be 3.4 US $/tonne of carbon dioxide-equivalent, less than the REF.

A comprehensive review of sectorial contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions and progress in carbon capture and storage in Pakistan

“…Energy is the backbone of economic growth and development and high energy consumption is considered a parameter to judge the standard of living in the world. An increase in energy consumption is generally regarded as a positive indication of economic prosperity; however, growing energy consumption leads to growing levels of GHGs and atmospheric pollution . In the recent past, a majority of GHGs were emitted by the energy sector, out of which CO 2 emissions were the most hazardous ones generating from fossil fuel consumption…”

“…An increase in energy consumption is generally regarded as a positive indication of economic prosperity; however, growing energy consumption leads to growing levels of GHGs and atmospheric pollution. 39 In the recent past, a majority of GHGs were emitted by the energy sector, out of which CO 2 emissions were the most hazardous ones generating from fossil fuel consumption. 40 For the near future, greater demand for energy and increased consumption is a perspective issue.…”

Integrated energy planning and modeling (IEPM) for sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan: Challenges and limitations

“…which contributed an overall 80% of CO 2 and two third of GHGs. The World Bank reported that during that era, the US posed the least impact due to increased renewable share in energy-mix (Bashir et al, 2018).…”

Empirical Insights into the Long-Run Linkage between Households Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Macro-Level Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

“…The estimations of the demand side scenario show that efficient water heating can save more electricity than cooling. Moreover, renewable energy use in electricity production can mitigate CO 2 emission significantly [55].…”