Integrated energy planning and modeling (IEPM) for sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan: Challenges and limitations

Abstract

Recent technological advancements demand IEPM for sustainable energy development through the induction of advanced computational techniques. However, the applicability and outcomes of such modeling tools vary due to underlying limitations in addition to gaps within the energy sector. This study uses a three-pronged approach to determine the potential of IEPM in shaping sustainable energy systems, particularly for Pakistan. Findings suggest that the main hindrances in sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan are over dependence upon thermal fuel mix and partial achievement of national energy policy targets. A review of the public sector plans, researches, and historical energy mix of Pakistan affirms that all efforts are targeted towards least cost electricity production without considering social and environmental impacts. All past studies projected energy supply and demand to ascertain future implications, but no one suggested sustainable alternatives for meeting national energy targets. Findings of this study necessitate upon development of a fair, consistent, long-term and sustainable IEP with clear policies to overcome sectoral bottlenecks and attain a high growth trajectory. A review of modeling tools, their applications and limitations, carried out in this study, suggests the adoption of the LEAP model for realistic IEP for Pakistan. This considered LEAP’s strengths in terms of energy-environment nexus, strong-accounting and scenario-building, bottom-up/top-down approach, user-friendliness, and spatial-temporal flexibility.

A spatial perspective on renewable energy optimization: Case study of southern Tunisia Using GIS and multicriteria decision making

“…Therefore, developing such hybrid systems can spur economic growth. Moreover, these systems provide a more reliable power supply while mitigating reliance on conventional fuels and carbon footprint (Abbasi et al, 2020; Bashir et al, 2022; Liu et al, 2022).…”

The Role of Nuclear Energy in Reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Energy Security: A Systematic Review

“…Most recent global and national accords on energy and environmental nexus necessitate energy planning models (EPM) [126] in the sector's development at the regional, national, and international levels to influence policymaking and implementation [127,128]. Energy planning models are key to energy security and decarbonization of the sector [126], allowing multicriteria analyses of the effects of energy policies on the economy and environment. Scenario analysis is commonly employed in modelling tools to evaluate various assumptions about technology, environment, and economic variables.…”

“…Incorporating multiple models into multipurpose energy modelling improves its functionality under centralized decision-making [132]. The multicriteria assessment (MCA) approach can deal with a wide variety of uncertainties and input data, as shown by energy assessment studies [126,133,134]. However, to evaluate the effectiveness of GHG mitigation objectives and other decarbonization policies such as sustainable development UNEP Balancing Energy and climate change policies, many countries have adopted models such as LEAP, MESSAGE, MAR-KAL, and AIM among others [135].…”