Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of intermittent wind, water, and solar for all purposes

Abstract

This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050-2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.energy security | climate change | grid stability | renewable energy | energy cost W orldwide, the development of wind, water, and solar (WWS) energy is expanding rapidly because it is sustainable, clean, safe, widely available, and, in many cases, already economical. However, utilities and grid operators often argue that today's power systems cannot accommodate significant variable wind and solar supplies without failure (1). Several studies have addressed some of the grid reliability issues with high WWS penetrations (2-21), but no study has analyzed a system that provides the maximum possible long-term environmental and social benefits, namely supplying all energy end uses with only WWS power (no natural gas, biofuels, or nuclear power), with no load loss at reasonable cost. This paper fills this gap. It describes the ability of WWS installations, determined consistently over each of the 48 contiguous United States (CONUS) and with wind and solar power output predicted in time and space with a 3D climate/weather model, accounting for extreme variability, to provide time-dependent load reliably and at low cost when combined with storage and demand response (DR) for the period 2050-2055, when a 100% WWS world may exist. Materials and MethodsThe key to this study is the development of a grid integration model (LOADMATCH). Inputs include time-dependent loads (every 30 s for 6 y); timedependent intermittent wind and solar resources (every 30 s for 6 y) predicted with a 3D global climate/weather model; time-dependent hydropower, geothermal, tidal, and wave resources; capacities and maximum charge/ discharge rates of several types of storage technologies, including hydrogen (H 2 ); specifications of losses from storage, transmission, distribution, and maintenance; and specifications of a DR system. Loads and Storage. CONUS loads for 2050-2055 for use in LOADMATCH are derived as follows. Annual CONUS loads are first e...

Observing and Simulating Wind-Turbine Wakes During the Evening Transition

“…Since mesoscale modelling is crucial in predicting power production in wind farms (Marquis et al 2011;Jiménez et al 2015;Wilczak et al 2015), comparisons of predicted and observed power output can help to identify areas for improvement in the WFP scheme in the WRF model. Moreover, accurate representation of wind farms in numerical weather prediction models is important for both simulating windenergy production and planning for energy infrastructure (Jacobson et al 2015;MacDonald et al 2016).…”

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

“…Jacobson et al (11) along with additional colleagues in a companion article (12) attempt to show the feasibility of supplying all energy end uses (in the continental United States) with almost exclusively wind, water, and solar (WWS) power (no coal, natural gas, bioenergy, or nuclear power), while meeting all loads, at reasonable cost. Ref.…”

“…It is important to understand the distinction between physical possibility and feasibility in the real world. To be clear, the specific aim of the work by Jacobson et al (11) is to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055. "…”

“…For example, the analyses by Jacobson et al (11,12) exclude from consideration several commercially available technologies, such as nuclear and bioenergy, that could potentially contribute to decarbonization of the global energy system, while also helping assure high levels of reliability in the power grid. Furthermore, Jacobson et al (11,12) exclude carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil fuel generation. An additional option not considered in the 100% wind, solar, and hydroelectric studies is bioenergy coupled with carbon capture and storage to create negative emissions within the system, which could help with emissions targets.…”

“…11 rely on a number of unproven technologies and poorly substantiated assumptions as detailed in SI Appendix, section S2. In summary, the reliability of the proposed 100% wind, solar, and hydroelectric power system depends centrally on a large installed capacity of several different energy storage systems (11), collectively allowing their model to flexibly reshape energy demand to match the output of variable electricity generation technologies. The study (11) assumes a total of 2,604 GW 4 of storage charging capacity, more than double the entire current capacity of all power plants in the United States (16).…”