Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

Abstract

A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. energy systems modeling | climate change | renewable energy | energy costs | grid stability A number of studies, including a study by one of us, have concluded that an 80% decarbonization of the US electric grid could be achieved at reasonable cost (1, 2). The high level of decarbonization is facilitated by an optimally configured continental high-voltage transmission network. There seems to be some consensus that substantial amounts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be avoided with widespread deployment of solar and wind electric generation technologies along with supporting infrastructure.Furthermore, it is not in question that it would be theoretically possible to build a reliable energy system excluding all bioenergy, nuclear energy, and fossil fuel sources. Given unlimited resources to build variable energy production facilities, while expanding the transmission grid and accompanying energy storage capacity enormously, one would eventually be able to meet any conceivable load. However, in developing a strategy to effectively mitigate global energy-related CO2 emissions, it is critical that the scope of the challenge to achieve this in the real world is accurately defined and clearly communicated.Wind and solar are variable energy sources, and some way must be found to address the issue of how to provide energy if their immediate output cannot continuously meet instantaneous demand. The main options are to (i) curtail load (i.e., modify or fail to satisfy demand) at times when energy is not available, (ii) deploy very large amounts of energy storage, or (iii) provide supplemental energy sources that can be dispatched when needed. It is not yet clear how much it is possible to curtail loads, especially over long durations, without incurring large economic costs. There are no electric storage systems available today that can

Climate policymakers and assessments must get serious about climate engineering

“…They exclude details related to technology performance, capital turnover, investment, policy, and other points necessary to show feasibility; they make extreme assumptions on these matters; or they posit rapid and disruptive societal transformations without explaining how likely these are, how they would come about, or how compatible they would be with liberal democratic societies (17)(18)(19)(20)(21). While the limits of feasible mitigation are uncertain, contested, and contingent on social values and political will, the assumptions and omissions underlying these rapid Because these gambles might fail, it is essential for prudent climate-change planning to investigate and consider solar geoengineering.…”

Real-World Challenges with a Rapid Transition to 100% Renewable Power Systems

“…It has been recognized that some energy system models inadequately consider essential system operability requirements, for example, with respect to the power and transmission system. 4 It is hence questionable if such scenarios propose realizable pathways. Understandably, multi-sector or economy-wide models are less detailed than sector-specific models, for instance of the power sector only.…”

Role of Seawater Desalination in the Management of an Integrated Water and 100% Renewable Energy Based Power Sector in Saudi Arabia

“…This research on the case of Saudi Arabia is another confirmation of the high competitiveness of 100% RE systems. Recently Clack et al [73] claimed that fossil-CCS and nuclear should be part of an energy system solution, which attracted stark criticism by Jacobson et al [74]. One of the motivations for the critique was the fact that no single one of the about 60 existing articles on 100% RE systems had been mentioned in [73].…”