Low carrying capacity a risk for threatened Chinook Salmon

Hinrichsen, Richard A.; Paulsen, Charles M.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109223

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In addition to the two-stage models described above, we also fit single-stage models for the entire life cycle (Hinrichsen & Paulsen, 2020). We then compared the single-stage adult carrying capacity estimates and their confidence interval widths to those derived from a two-stage model.…”

Section: Model Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In these SR models, recruits are adult progeny, intrinsic productivity is the recruits per spawner at low spawner numbers and carrying capacity is the number of spawners at which recruitment equals spawners (Hilborn & Walters, 1992). Extinction risk of a population is known to be closely linked to its intrinsic productivity and carrying capacity; as intrinsic productivity or carrying capacity increases, extinction risk declines (Hakoyama et al, 2000;Hilderbrand, 2003;Hinrichsen & Paulsen, 2020). Intrinsic productivity controls how quickly a population rebounds from low abundance, while carrying capacity controls how often the lows occur (Hakoyama et al, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Intrinsic productivity controls how quickly a population rebounds from low abundance, while carrying capacity controls how often the lows occur (Hakoyama et al, 2000). A recent study of threatened salmon populations showed that carrying capacity was more important than intrinsic productivity for explaining variation in extinction risk (Hinrichsen & Paulsen, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A multistage Gompertz life‐cycle model applied to threatened Chinook salmon

Hinrichsen¹,

Paulsen²

2022

Aquaculture Fish & Fisheries

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Because the Gompertz model has a long history of use as a population model, we analyzed its properties as a multistage stock-recruitment model. We found that if a lifecycle model is a sequence of linked Gompertz stock-recruitment models at each life stage, then it is also a Gompertz stock-recruitment model. This is similar to the wellknown result for the Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment model. The Gompertz model is guaranteed to yield least squares estimates and therefore, can offer a distinct advantage over the Beverton-Holt model, which cannot be fit using linear regression and may not yield valid maximum likelihood estimates. We illustrate the use of this multistage modelling framework by applying it to Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We found that the Gompertz model fit the data better than the Beverton-Holt Model, and yielded similar carrying capacity estimates for both juveniles and adults. Past work by others on these populations has usually assumed that parr-to-adult survival is density independent. However, we found that this assumption may be incorrect: when we applied two-stage models to these populations, we found density dependence at the juvenile-to-adult stage. This suggests that life-cycle modelling to date has been overly optimistic about the benefits of survival rate increases in the hydro-system and elsewhere to improve the viability of salmon populations threatened with high extinction risk.

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Section: Model Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A multistage Gompertz life‐cycle model applied to threatened Chinook salmon

Hinrichsen¹,

Paulsen²

2022

Aquaculture Fish & Fisheries

Self Cite

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“…Problematically, there is substantial uncertainty regarding the degree of change that can be exerted across and within these categories, and what combination of changes will most cost‐effectively and sustainably reduce mortality. Freshwater habitat capacity deficits have recently been identified as a major factor directly impacting population abundance which has been largely overlooked in Columbia River Basin salmonids (Bond et al 2019, Hinrichsen and Paulsen 2020, NOAA Fisheries 2020). Specifically, restoring salmonid carrying capacity through tributary rehabilitation actions has been identified as a key component of recovery efforts for salmon and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) in the Pacific Northwest, USA (NOAA Fisheries 2016 a , b ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Efforts have included increasing and improving existing habitat for both spawning adults and rearing juveniles. However, estimating habitat carrying capacity (both historic and contemporary) for various life stages of Pacific salmon, as well as identifying important habitat characteristics that influence capacity, has been an ongoing but necessary challenge (Bond et al 2019, Hinrichsen and Paulsen 2020, NOAA Fisheries 2020). Reliable methods to better understand fish–habitat relationships and estimate capacity are necessary to identify those salmon and steelhead life stages that are limited by habitat capacity to better direct tributary rehabilitation efforts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating carrying capacity for juvenile salmon using quantile random forest models

et al. 2021

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How does habitat restoration influence resilience of salmon populations to climate change?

et al. 2023

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A pressing question for managing recovery of depressed or declining species is: Can habitat restoration increase resilience to climate change? We addressed this question for salmon populations with varying life histories, where resilience is defined as maintaining or increasing population size despite climate change effects. Previous studies indicate that several interrelated mechanisms may influence salmon resilience to climate change, including improving either habitat capacity or productivity, and ameliorating climate change effects on flood flow, low flow, or stream temperature. Using the Habitat Assessment and Restoration Planning (HARP) model, we first examined the relative importance of each mechanism for increasing salmon population resilience by comparing projected salmon spawner abundance for seven individual restoration action types under current and projected mid-and late-century climates.We found that restoring habitats with the greatest restoration potential most increased resilience for all species, but the most beneficial restoration actions varied among species. Increasing habitat capacity and productivity both contributed to resilience, and ameliorating climate change effects was important in a few subbasins where the restoration opportunity was widespread.Cool-water climate refuges contributed to resilience of some subpopulations by reducing late-century declines in spawner abundance even without restoration. We also modeled more complex habitat restoration strategies comprised of several restoration action types at varying restoration intensities and found that the restoration action types and level of restoration effort needed to increase resilience varied among species. Less vulnerable species such as coho salmon responded well to four restoration actions (floodplain reconnection, wood augmentation, increased shade, and increased beaver ponds) applied at low restoration intensity and over a large area. More vulnerable species such as spring Chinook responded to fewer action types (floodplain reconnection, wood augmentation, and increased shade), but at much higher intensity and over a much smaller area. The analysis also identified important locations for each

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Low carrying capacity a risk for threatened Chinook Salmon

Cited by 7 publications

References 30 publications

A multistage Gompertz life‐cycle model applied to threatened Chinook salmon

A multistage Gompertz life‐cycle model applied to threatened Chinook salmon

Estimating carrying capacity for juvenile salmon using quantile random forest models

How does habitat restoration influence resilience of salmon populations to climate change?

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