An investigation into the causes of species decline should include examination of habitats important for multiple life stages. Integrating habitat impacts across life stages with life-cycle models (LCMs) can reveal habitat impairments inhibiting recovery and help guide restoration efforts. As part of the final elements of the Habitat Restoration Planning model (HARP; Beechie et al. this volume), we developed LCMs for four populations of three species of anadromous salmonids (Oncorhynchus kisutch, O. tshawytscha, and O. mykiss), and ran diagnostic scenarios to examine effects of barrier removal, fine sediment reduction, wood augmentation, riparian shade, restoration of the main channel and bank conditions, beaver pond restoration, and floodplain reconnection. In the wood scenario, spawner abundance for all populations increased moderately (29–48%). In the shade scenario, spring-run Chinook salmon abundance increased the most (48%) and fall-run Chinook salmon and steelhead were much less responsive. Coho responded strongly to the beaver pond and floodplain scenarios (76% and 54%, respectively). The fine sediment scenario most benefitted fall- and spring-run Chinook salmon (32–63%), whereas steelhead and coho were less responsive (11–21% increase). More observations are needed to understand high fine sediment and its impacts. Our LCMs were region-specific, identifying places where habitat actions had the highest potential effects. For example, the increase in spring-run Chinook salmon in the wood scenario was driven by the Cascade Mountains Ecological Region. And, although the overall response of coho salmon was small in the barrier removal scenario (6% increase at the scale of the entire basin), barrier removals had important sub-regional impacts. The HARP analysis revealed basin-wide and regional population-specific potential benefits by action types, and this habitat-based approach could be used to develop restoration strategies and guide population rebuilding. An important next step will be to ground-truth our findings with robust empirically-based estimates of life stage-specific survivals and abundances.

Dam removal provides a valuable opportunity to measure the fluvial response to changes in both sediment supply and the processes that shape channel morphology. We present the first study of river response to the removal of a large (32‐m‐high) dam in a Mediterranean hydroclimatic setting, on the Carmel River, coastal California, USA. This before‐after/control‐impact study measured changes in channel topography, grain size, and salmonid spawning habitat throughout dam removal and subsequent major floods. During dam removal, the river course was re‐routed in order to leave most of the impounded sediment sequestered in the former reservoir and thus prevent major channel and floodplain aggradation downstream. However, a substantial sediment pulse occurred in response to base‐level fall, knickpoint migration, and channel avulsion through sediment in the former reservoir above the newly re‐routed channel. The sediment pulse advanced ~3.5 km in the first wet season after dam removal, resulting in decreased riverbed grain size downstream of the dam site. In the second wet season after dam removal, high flows (including a 30‐year flood and two 10‐year floods) transported sediment > 30 km downstream, filling pools and reducing cross‐channel relief. Deposition of gravel in the second wet season after dam removal enhanced salmonid spawning habitat downstream of the dam site. We infer that in dam removals where most reservoir sediment remains impounded and where high flows follow soon after dam removal, flow sequencing becomes a more important driver of geomorphic and fish‐habitat change than the dam removal alone. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identifying necessary stream and watershed restoration actions requires quantifying natural potential habitat conditions to diagnose habitat change and evaluate restoration potential. We used three general methods of quantifying natural potential: historical maps and survey notes, contemporary reference sites, and models. Historical information was available only for the floodplain habitat analysis. We used contemporary reference sites to estimate natural potential habitat conditions for wood abundance, riparian shade, main channel length, and side channel length. For fine sediment, temperature, and beaver ponds we relied on models. We estimated a 90% loss of potential beaver pond area, 91% loss of side-channel length, and 92% loss or degradation of floodplain marshes and ponds. Spawning habitat area change due to wood loss ranged from -23% to -68% across subbasins. Other changes in habitat quantity or quality were smaller—either in magnitude or spatial extent—including rearing habitat areas, stream temperature, and accessible stream length. Historical floodplain habitat mapping provided the highest spatial resolution and certainty in locations and amounts of floodplain habitat lost or degraded, whereas use of the contemporary reference information provided less site specificity for wood abundance and side-channel length change. The models for fine sediment levels and beaver pond areas have the lowest reach-specific certainty, whereas the model of temperature change has higher certainty because it is based on a detailed riparian inventory. Despite uncertainties at the reach level, confidence in subbasin-level estimates of habitat change is moderate to high because accuracy increases as data are aggregated over multiple reaches. Our results show that the largest habitat losses were floodplain and beaver pond habitats, but use of these habitat change results in salmon life-cycle models can illustrate how the potential benefits of alternative habitat restoration actions varies among species with differing habitat preferences.

Over the last three decades, passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags have been widely used to study fish populations. Interpretation of PIT tag detections, however, can be confounded by the presence of ghost tags, tags liberated when a fish dies. We used a combination of mobile antenna surveys, stationary antenna detections, and multistate mark–recapture modeling to assess the abundance and fate of ghost tags in a coastal California watershed. Accumulation of ghost tags from released hatchery-origin coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) smolts was substantial during California’s recent drought, with 2224 ghost tags identified during mobile reader surveys. Between surveys, PIT tags moved downstream a median distance of 346 m and a maximum distance of 1982 m. Stationary antenna array detections indicated that these movements occurred during high-flow events, concurrent with live fish movement. The multistate model estimated that, during winter, approximately 40% of tags were buried in the substrate beyond the read range of mobile readers. Failure to account for transport and burial dynamics of ghost tags can lead to biased estimates of fish abundance, survival, and movement.

Stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are projected to increase with climate change, placing additional stress on cold-water salmonids. We modeled the potential impact of increased stream temperatures on four anadromous salmonid populations in the Chehalis River Basin (spring-run and fall-run Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead O. mykiss), as well as the potential for floodplain reconnection and stream shade restoration to offset the effects of future temperature increases. In the Chehalis River Basin, peak summer stream temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 3°C by late-century, but restoration actions can locally decrease temperatures by as much as 6°C. On average, however, basin-wide average stream temperatures are expected to increase because most reaches have low temperature reduction potential for either restoration action relative to climate change. Results from the life cycle models indicated that, without restoration actions, increased summer temperatures are likely to produce significant declines in spawner abundance by late-century for coho (-29%), steelhead (-34%), and spring-run Chinook salmon (-95%), and smaller decreases for fall-run Chinook salmon (-17%). Restoration actions reduced these declines in all cases, although model results suggest that temperature restoration alone may not fully mitigate effects of future temperature increases. Notably, floodplain reconnection provided a greater benefit than riparian restoration for steelhead and both Chinook salmon populations, but riparian restoration provided a greater benefit for coho. This pattern emerged because coho salmon tend to spawn and rear in smaller streams where shade restoration has a larger effect on stream temperature, whereas Chinook and steelhead tend to occupy larger rivers where temperatures are more influenced by floodplain connectivity. Spring-run Chinook salmon are the only population for which peak temperatures affect adult prespawn survival in addition to rearing survival, making them the most sensitive species to increasing stream temperatures.

Large‐scale river restoration programs have emerged recently as a tool for improving spawning habitat for native salmonids in highly altered river ecosystems. Few studies have quantified the extent to which restored habitat is utilized by salmonids, which habitat features influence redd site selection, or the persistence of restored habitat over time. We investigated fall‐run Chinook salmon spawning site utilization and measured and modeled corresponding habitat characteristics in two restored reaches: a reach of channel and floodplain enhancement completed in 2013 and a reconfigured channel and floodplain constructed in 2002. Redd surveys demonstrated that both restoration projects supported a high density of salmon redds, 3 and 14 years following restoration. Salmon redds were constructed in coarse gravel substrates located in areas of high sediment mobility, as determined by measurements of gravel friction angles and a grain entrainment model. Salmon redds were located near transitions between pool‐riffle bedforms in regions of high predicted hyporheic flows. Habitat quality (quantified as a function of stream hydraulics) and hyporheic flow were both strong predictors of redd occurrence, though the relative roles of these variables differed between sites. Our findings indicate that physical controls on redd site selection in restored channels were similar to those reported for natural channels elsewhere. Our results further highlight that in addition to traditional habitat criteria (e.g., water depth, velocity, and substrate size), quantifying sediment texture and mobility, as well as intragravel flow, provides a more complete understanding of the ecological benefits provided by river restoration projects.

In the Pacific Northwest, USA, climate change is expected to result in a shift in average hydrologic conditions and increase variability. The relative vulnerabilities to peak flow changes among salmonid species within the same basin have not been widely evaluated. We assessed the impacts of predicted increases in peak flows on four salmonid populations in the Chehalis River basin. Coupling observations of peak flows, emissions projections, and multi-stage Beverton–Holt matrix-type life cycle models, we ran 100-year simulations of spawner abundance under baseline, mid-century, and late-century climate change scenarios. Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) shared the highest projected increase in interannual variability (SD = ±15%). Spring Chinook salmon had the greatest reduction in median spawner abundance (–13% to –15%), followed by coho and fall Chinook salmon (–7% to –9%), then steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) (–4%). Our results show that interspecies and life history variability within a single basin is important to consider. Species with diverse age structures are partially buffered from population variability, which may increase population resilience to climate change.

A pressing question for managing recovery of depressed or declining species is: Can habitat restoration increase resilience to climate change? We addressed this question for salmon populations with varying life histories, where resilience is defined as maintaining or increasing population size despite climate change effects. Previous studies indicate that several interrelated mechanisms may influence salmon resilience to climate change, including improving either habitat capacity or productivity, and ameliorating climate change effects on flood flow, low flow, or stream temperature. Using the Habitat Assessment and Restoration Planning (HARP) model, we first examined the relative importance of each mechanism for increasing salmon population resilience by comparing projected salmon spawner abundance for seven individual restoration action types under current and projected mid-and late-century climates.We found that restoring habitats with the greatest restoration potential most increased resilience for all species, but the most beneficial restoration actions varied among species. Increasing habitat capacity and productivity both contributed to resilience, and ameliorating climate change effects was important in a few subbasins where the restoration opportunity was widespread.Cool-water climate refuges contributed to resilience of some subpopulations by reducing late-century declines in spawner abundance even without restoration. We also modeled more complex habitat restoration strategies comprised of several restoration action types at varying restoration intensities and found that the restoration action types and level of restoration effort needed to increase resilience varied among species. Less vulnerable species such as coho salmon responded well to four restoration actions (floodplain reconnection, wood augmentation, increased shade, and increased beaver ponds) applied at low restoration intensity and over a large area. More vulnerable species such as spring Chinook responded to fewer action types (floodplain reconnection, wood augmentation, and increased shade), but at much higher intensity and over a much smaller area. The analysis also identified important locations for each