Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles: A backcasting scenario approach

Neuvonen, Aleksi; Kaskinen, Tuuli; Leppänen, Juha; Lähteenoja, Satu; Mokka, Roope; Ritola, Maria

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.004

Cited by 65 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The most suitable domains for this type of a normative approach have been large energy and transportation systems, where long-term investments in infrastructure and economic incentives are the determining factors, and thus quantified models depicting possible pathways can be based on these techno-economic drivers. (Neuvonen et al 2014) The most defining characteristic of backcasting is the normative approach to the future that it entails instead of a purely descriptive one. The typical first step in a backcasting scenario process is to assume defining criteria for a desirable future and to build a feasible and logical path between states of the future and the present based on it.…”

Section: Method: Backcasting Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These radical emissions reduction levels (-80-95%) have extended the usual time horizon of political debate and introduced future carbon intensity of technical and social systems as relevant planning principles for cities (Neuvonen et al 2014). Hence the challenge goes far beyond an energy-carbon issue, covering such territories of everyday life as housing, mobility, and food, and basic categories of society such as work, enterprise and technology.…”

Section: Introduction: Metropolitan Development Beyond the Reach Of Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, what is still needed are tools and methods through which imagination by individuals can be conjoined into a shared 'perspective' or 'vision'. Previously we have suggested such models as 'territorial response capacity' (Ache 2011), in which expertise, foresight, norms, and strategy have been chosen with a similar interest and 'emancipatory backcasting' (Neuvonen et al 2014) that aims not to identify but to non-omit key actors and to empower key actors to understand their role in the formation of sustainable futures. In this article we interpret the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 process as an exercise of 'territorial response capacity' and 'emancipatory backcasting'.…”

Section: Introduction: Metropolitan Development Beyond the Reach Of Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…What would a new integrated 'incrementalism with perspective' (Ganser, Siebel & Sieverts 1993) approach to managing metropolitan transitions look like? This paper extends the idea of 'emancipatory backcasting' as a generic tool for engaging stakeholders in transition processes to cover metropolitan futures (Neuvonen et al 2014). …”

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confidence: 99%

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Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

Neuvonen

Ache

2017

Futures

Self Cite

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The need for new forward looking tools in urban planning is immense: The new functional relations and structures are stretching beyond our capacity to 'rationally' capture modern metropolitan spaces (Neuman & Hull 2009). At the same time cities struggle to find tools to help manage a long-term transition towards a low-carbon, resource smart economy.In 2006-2007 municipalities in the Helsinki metropolitan region organised an international ideas competition called Greater Helsinki Vision 2050. The competition aimed at being "a visionary adventure […] [t]he chance to dream afresh, to accept current realities, not as negative restraints but as spurs to the imagination." The competition drew a good number of entries and triggered a subsequent analysis process to harvest the most fruitful ideas of the competition, which brought together awarded participants of the competitions, local planning professionals and citizens. (Ache 2011) This paper explores the role of (normative) visions on the future of metropolitan spaces as a tool for facilitating transition. This is done through a 'thick description' (Geertz 1973) of one example case, namely the Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 ideas competition and subsequent vision process. This thick description is based on a backdrop and an elaboration of a literature-based mapping of tools for managing long-term transformation in metropolitan spaces.The focus of this paper is the question of strategic learning by the actors involved in an urban transition process. How can different tools of the imagination (long-term goal on GHG emissions reductions, backcasting scenarios, participatory visioning exercises) bring something un-manageable like metropolitan spaces and the wicked problems they face within the domain of managing? How can different actors experience strategic learning on renewed perspectives of different opportunities that alternative futures could provide? What would a new integrated 'incrementalism with perspective' (Ganser, Siebel & Sieverts 1993) approach to managing metropolitan transitions look like? This paper extends the idea of 'emancipatory backcasting' as a generic tool for engaging stakeholders in transition processes to cover metropolitan futures (Neuvonen et al. 2014).

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Section: Method: Backcasting Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction: Metropolitan Development Beyond the Reach Of Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction: Metropolitan Development Beyond the Reach Of Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

Neuvonen

Ache

2017

Futures

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“…The use of backcasting would help to ensure that the visions and strategies were developed and based on the environmental needs, rather than on political decisions (Tansey et al, 2002;Phdungsilp, 2011;Neuvonen et al, 2014;CarlssonKanyama et al, 2008). Use of backcasting would also provide a framework within which there could be greater consistency in the manner in which the documents were developed.…”

Section: Overcoming the Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The development of environmental visions and strategies at the municipal level: Case studies from the county of Östergötland in Sweden

Weddfelt

Vaccari

Tudor

2016

Journal of Environmental Management

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Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios

Skånberg

Svenfelt

2021

Futures & Foresight Science

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This paper builds on four qualitative backcasting scenarios that illustrate sustainable futures in a Swedish setting. The paper complements the originally qualitative scenarios by developing an eight‐step modified and expanded IPAT model—originally describing environmental impact as a product of population, affluence, and technology—that also enables quantitative descriptions of the scenarios. The modified and expanded IPAT model is used to show how the scenarios can stay within the climate aspect of sustainability. The result is quantified descriptions of the development paths of energy‐related carbon dioxide emissions, working hours, man‐made capital stocks, recycled and nonrecycled materials used, and different types of energy used in the four scenarios. The four main findings are (a) the back‐bone instrument in making the energy system fossil‐free will, in all scenarios, substitute fossil energy with renewable energy; (b) however, to succeed with that it is necessary to use different mixes of many complementary climate policy instruments; (c) IPAT models can be modified and expanded in many different ways to act as quantitative descriptions of different technological developments and social changes in scenario exercises; (d) by disregarding gross domestic product as a proxy for affluence, and replacing it with labor and capital, behavioral concepts like sharing and prolonged product lifetimes can more easily be introduced as climate policy options in a modified and expanded IPAT model.

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Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles: A backcasting scenario approach

Cited by 65 publications

References 17 publications

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

The development of environmental visions and strategies at the municipal level: Case studies from the county of Östergötland in Sweden

Expanding the IPAT identity to quantify backcasting sustainability scenarios

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