Low carbon emission development strategies for Jambi, Indonesia: simulation and trade-off analysis using the FALLOW model

Abstract

Economic growth in rural areas has to align with preservation of land uses that optimise environmental services. This means that trade-offs between economic and ecological priorities need to be understood, quantified and managed. We aimed to estimate the trade-off in the Tanjung Jabung Barat district of Jambi province Indonesia, where traditional agroforestry systems on both peat and mineral soils and logged-over forests give way to monocultural plantations of pulpwood and oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Simulations of a 30-year time period of four scenarios using the FALLOW (Forests, Agroforests, Low-value-Landscape, Or, Wastelands) model show that a business-as-usual scenario of economic growth unhindered by the application of conservation scenarios will lead to high carbon dioxide CO 2 emissions. The forest and agroforest protection scenario, with moderate assumptions for peat-based emissions, had opportunity costs of 3-100 USD/t CO 2 e. This occurred especially when the establishment of oil palm plantations, which are currently the most profitable land use option in the area, is directed solely to under utilized mineral soils. The high trade-off values are difficult to reconcile when relying only on C trading mechanism to offset economic opportunity costs of not converting forests and/or agroforests to plantations. We conclude that law-based protection of existing forests, investment in intermediate intensity agroforestry options that utilize locally adapted trees and do not require drainage of peatlands, and re-introduction of tapping Jelutung (Dyera sp) latex as non-timber peat forest product, are needed in the Tanjabar district to provide options that are sustainable from both ecological and economic perspectives.

Domestication of Dyera polyphylla (Miq.) Steenis in peatland agroforestry systems in Jambi, Indonesia

“…Current expectations of the potential for jelutong trees from agroforestry systems that are the basis of local governments' reforestation and afforestation programs are, however, not supported by data on current market demand. Farmers' motivation and initiation of jelutong domestication will have to be supported by national and local rules and regulations (Sofiyuddin et al 2012;Mulia et al 2013;Galudra et al 2014) if further progress is to be made. The government would do well to ease the regulation on latex marketing that is still based on the assumption that all latex is derived from natural forests and should be taxed accordingly, in supporting farmers' initiatives in jelutong agroforestry, facilitating a value chain and ensuring competitive prices with other crops.…”

Will funding to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) Degradation (REDD+) stop conversion of peat swamps to oil palm in orangutan habitat in Tripa in Aceh, Indonesia?

“…(FALLOW) model (van Noordwijk 2002;van Noordwijk et al 2008;Suyamto et al 2009), which represents farmers' decisionmaking among land-use systems and labour allocation on the basis of learning from the performance of such land-use systems in the local context. Mulia et al (2013) in this issue describe the model in more detail in the context of an application for the peat swamps on Sumatra's eastern coast. Five scenarios were developed for Tripa: (i) business as usual (BAU), where oil-palm estates operate according to current oil-palm concession rules and have a right to open remaining forests inside their concession; (ii) conservation of remaining forests (patch); (iii) instantaneous restoration of all oilpalm plantations into forest ("instantaneous"); (iv) gradual restoration (gradual); and (v) establishment of two corridors to support orangutan preservation (corridor).…”

Optimising land use in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia : modelling ecosystem benefits and land use dynamics

“…Result of our simulation show that CO 2 emissions could potentially reduce for about 23 % through the implementation of MoratoriumPlus-Livelihood scenario in this district. These results support the findings of Mulia et al (2014) and Tata et al (2015) that indicate the importance of economic incentives for NTFP collection in sustaining forest, increasing the supply of rattan and jelutong and reducing potential CO 2 emissions. Premium prices for NTFPs, agroforestry rubber and community timber could change local perceptions of forest and agroforestry conservation and reduce potential CO 2 emissions from land-use change consequently.…”

“…The analysis of ecosystem benefits and trade-offs on how these benefits will change in the various scenarios are valuable inputs for ecosystem managers to achieve positive outcomes in balancing conservation and development programmes (Kettunen et al, 2009;de Groot et al, 2010;Deal et al, 2012;Alvarado-Quesada et al, 2014;Ruckelshaus et al, 2015). Meanwhile, information on how people make their land-use decisions is also essential to support ecosystem managers in reconciling the interest of all possible stakeholders (Matthews et al, 2007;Mulia et al, 2014;Villamor et al, 2014;. Possible future land-use conditions seen in the scenarios that were quantified by land-use change models, are valuable as a reference point for policy making and/or evaluation/assessment processes (Matthews et al, 2007;Sumarga and Hein, 2014).…”