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Background The historical development and contemporary instances of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, exemplify the increasing significance of using futures methods in shaping the health care domain. Despite the wide array of these methodologies, there have been limited endeavors to employ them within the medical community thus far. Objective We undertook the first scoping review to date about the application of futures methodologies and published foresight projects in health care. Methods Through the use of the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) method, we identified 59 studies that were subsequently categorized into the following 5 distinct themes: national strategies (n=19), strategic health care foresight (n=15), health care policy and workforce dynamics (n=6), pandemic preparedness and response (n=7), and specialized medical domains (n=12). Results Our scoping review revealed that the application of futures methods and foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields, including national strategies, policy formulation, global threat preparedness, and technological advancements. The results of our review indicate that a total of 8 futures methods have already been used in medicine and health care, while there are more than 50 futures methods available. It may underscore the notion that the field is unexploited. Furthermore, the absence of structured methodologies and principles for employing foresight and futures techniques in the health care domain warrants the creation of medical futures studies as a separate scientific subfield within the broad domains of health care, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would focus on the analysis of emerging technological trends, the evaluation of policy implications, and the proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. Conclusions Futures studies can significantly enhance medical science by addressing a crucial deficiency in the promotion of democratic participation, facilitating interdisciplinary dialogue, and shaping alternative futures. To further contribute to the development of a new research community in medical futures studies, it is recommended to establish a specialized scientific journal. Additionally, appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy, and incorporating futures methods into the medical curriculum could be beneficial.
Background The historical development and contemporary instances of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, exemplify the increasing significance of using futures methods in shaping the health care domain. Despite the wide array of these methodologies, there have been limited endeavors to employ them within the medical community thus far. Objective We undertook the first scoping review to date about the application of futures methodologies and published foresight projects in health care. Methods Through the use of the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) method, we identified 59 studies that were subsequently categorized into the following 5 distinct themes: national strategies (n=19), strategic health care foresight (n=15), health care policy and workforce dynamics (n=6), pandemic preparedness and response (n=7), and specialized medical domains (n=12). Results Our scoping review revealed that the application of futures methods and foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields, including national strategies, policy formulation, global threat preparedness, and technological advancements. The results of our review indicate that a total of 8 futures methods have already been used in medicine and health care, while there are more than 50 futures methods available. It may underscore the notion that the field is unexploited. Furthermore, the absence of structured methodologies and principles for employing foresight and futures techniques in the health care domain warrants the creation of medical futures studies as a separate scientific subfield within the broad domains of health care, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would focus on the analysis of emerging technological trends, the evaluation of policy implications, and the proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. Conclusions Futures studies can significantly enhance medical science by addressing a crucial deficiency in the promotion of democratic participation, facilitating interdisciplinary dialogue, and shaping alternative futures. To further contribute to the development of a new research community in medical futures studies, it is recommended to establish a specialized scientific journal. Additionally, appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy, and incorporating futures methods into the medical curriculum could be beneficial.
BACKGROUND The historical development of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, demonstrates the growing importance of foresight in forming the healthcare landscape. However, only a few attempts to use these foresight methods, despite their extensive range, have attracted the attention of the medical community thus far. OBJECTIVE In this study, we aimed at exploring this observation by undertaking the first scoping review to date about the application of foresight methodologies and published foresight projects in healthcare. METHODS Using the PRISMA-ScR method, we identified 43 studies which were categorized into five unique themes. RESULTS Based on our findings, we conclude that the use of foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields from national strategies and policy-making, to preparing for global threats and technological breakthroughs. However, the low number of sources we could include in this review; and the lack of a systematic approach and guidelines to using foresight in the healthcare domain justify that there is an imperative need for the establishment of 'Medical Futures Studies' as a distinctive sub-discipline within the expansive domains of healthcare, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would deal with emerging technological trends, policy considerations, and proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. CONCLUSIONS Futures studies have the potential to greatly advance medical science by filling a critical gap in advancing democratic participation to accomplish interdisciplinary dialogue and shaping alternative futures. Launching a dedicated scientific journal in medical futures studies to foster a new research community; appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy; and teaching basic futures research methods in the medical curriculum could further contribute to that.
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