Exploring the Need for Medical Futures Studies: Insights From a Scoping Review of Health Care Foresight (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND The historical development of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, demonstrates the growing importance of foresight in forming the healthcare landscape. However, only a few attempts to use these foresight methods, despite their extensive range, have attracted the attention of the medical community thus far. OBJECTIVE In this study, we aimed at exploring this observation by undertaking the first scoping review to date about the application of foresight methodologies and published foresight projects in healthcare. METHODS Using the PRISMA-ScR method, we identified 43 studies which were categorized into five unique themes. RESULTS Based on our findings, we conclude that the use of foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields from national strategies and policy-making, to preparing for global threats and technological breakthroughs. However, the low number of sources we could include in this review; and the lack of a systematic approach and guidelines to using foresight in the healthcare domain justify that there is an imperative need for the establishment of 'Medical Futures Studies' as a distinctive sub-discipline within the expansive domains of healthcare, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would deal with emerging technological trends, policy considerations, and proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. CONCLUSIONS Futures studies have the potential to greatly advance medical science by filling a critical gap in advancing democratic participation to accomplish interdisciplinary dialogue and shaping alternative futures. Launching a dedicated scientific journal in medical futures studies to foster a new research community; appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy; and teaching basic futures research methods in the medical curriculum could further contribute to that.