Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Extreme Events over Kosi River Basin in India

Abstract

Analysis of spatial and temporal changes of long-term precipitation and extreme precipitation distribution at a local scale is very important for the prevention and mitigation of water-related disasters. In the present study, we have analyzed the long-term trend of 116 years (1901–2016) of precipitation and distribution of extreme precipitation index over the Kosi River Basin (KRB), which is one of the frequent flooding rivers of India, using the 0.25° × 0.25° resolution gridded precipitation datasets obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test together with Sen’s slope estimator was employed to determine the trend and the magnitude of the trend of the precipitation time series. The annual and monsoon seasons revealed decreasing trends with Sen’s slope values of −1.88 and −0.408, respectively. For the extreme indices viz. R10 and R20 days, a decreasing trend from the northeastern to the southwest part of the basin can be observed, whereas, in the case of highest one-day precipitation (RX1 day), no clear trend was found. The information provided through this study can be useful for policymakers and may play an important role in flood management, runoff, and understanding related to the hydrological process of the basin. This will contribute to a better understanding of the potential risk of changing rainfall patterns, especially the extreme rainfall events due to climatic variations.

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Investigation of Various Rainfall Intensities over Central India Using EO Datasets

“…Several studies have provided valuable insights into the spatiotemporal distributions and variability of rainfall within the domain of Indian climatology [5,22]. Recently, India has confronted several excessive rainfall occasions that have led to huge harm to infrastructure and affected the lives of thousands and thousands of people [23,24].…”

Rainfall Spatial-Temporal Variability and Trends in the Thamirabharani River Basin, India: Implications for Agricultural Planning and Water Management

“…Studies in analyzing precipitation trends have been reported across the world in various river basins such as the Indus basin [47], Vea catchment [48], Awash River basin [49], and Yarlung river basin [40]. Similarly, in India, trend studies using gridded satellite products have been performed in the Kosi River basin [50], the Cauvery basin [51][52][53], and the Gomati basin [54].…”

A Comparison of the Performance of Different Interpolation Methods in Replicating Rainfall Magnitudes under Different Climatic Conditions in Chongqing Province (China)

“…Hence, characterizing the spatial distribution of precipitation is crucial for improving the physical understanding of regional climate dynamics and for evaluating weather and climate models, which possibly helps manage water resources and deals with flood crises as well [8][9][10]. In addition, precipitation is a major driving force of hydrological processes and the most active factor in the water cycle [11,12]; small changes in its pattern directly influence such hydrological regime as runoff, soil moisture, and groundwater reserves of concerned regions [13][14][15]. The dynamics of the hydrological simulation models are also influenced to a certain extent by the spatial variability of precipitation [16][17][18].…”

“…The dynamics of the hydrological simulation models are also influenced to a certain extent by the spatial variability of precipitation [16][17][18]. However, the identification, verification, and quantification of trends in precipitation and its spatial distribution are significant challenges due to significant changes in global climate and the highly spatial and temporal variability of precipitation [7,13,19]. Within complex topography, the characteristic spatial scales of meteorological forcing are typically poorly captured even with a relatively dense network of measurements [18].…”