Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies for achieving the 1.5 °C target – insights from a comparison of German bottom-up energy scenarios

Samadi, Sascha; Terrapon-Pfaff, Julia C.; Lechtenböhmer, Stefan; Knoop, Katharina

doi:10.1080/17583004.2018.1475174

Cited by 13 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…In particular, many IAMs face structural challenges including context-specific aspects of non-climate co-benefits or costs. 22 There is also a "bottom-up" literature 23 , designed around national circumstances and policy, which conducts country-scale investigation of development and ambitious climate objectives for a wide range of countries across Asia [24][25][26][27][28] , Latin America [29][30][31][32][33][34] , Africa 35,36 , Europe [37][38][39][40][41][42][43] and North America. [44][45][46][47][48][49] Several studies describe multi-country exercises in which country teams co-explored their domestic pathways.…”

Section: Methodological Challenges To Inform the Post-paris Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

et al. 2019

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The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, whilst holding development goals paramount in context of national circumstances. In the lead up to COP21, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed and policy-relevant country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and ratcheting of ambition.

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Section: Methodological Challenges To Inform the Post-paris Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

et al. 2019

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“…In terms of water use in the power sector, usually, a distinction is made between water withdrawal and water consumption. Water withdrawal refers to the amount of water extracted from surface water bodies or groundwater, while water consumption describes the proportion of the water withdrawn that is not returned to the water source but evaporates or is otherwise consumed [36]. The actual volume of withdrawn and consumed water by the global power sector is unknown.…”

Section: Estimated Water Use Intensity By Energy Source and Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Demand Scenarios for Electricity Generation at the Global and Regional Levels

Terrapon-Pfaff

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et al. 2020

Water

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Electricity generation requires water. With the global demand for electricity expected to increase significantly in the coming decades, the water demand in the power sector is also expected to rise. However, due to the ongoing global energy transition, the future structure of the power supply—and hence future water demand for power generation—is subject to high levels of uncertainty, because the volume of water required for electricity generation varies significantly depending on both the generation technology and the cooling system. This study shows the implications of ambitious decarbonization strategies for the direct water demand for electricity generation. To this end, water demand scenarios for the electricity sector are developed based on selected global energy scenario studies to systematically analyze the impact up to 2040. The results show that different decarbonization strategies for the electricity sector can lead to a huge variation in water needs. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) does not necessarily lead to a reduction in water demand. These findings emphasize the need to take into account not only GHG emission reductions, but also such aspects as water requirements of future energy systems, both at the regional and global levels, in order to achieve a sustainable energy transition.

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“…On the other hand, during times of low supply that is barely able to meet basic demand, market prices might become very high. four or five times higher than the current power demand and would exceed the renewable energy potential of the country by a factor of two or even three [16,17]. To counterbalance this, energy scenarios indicate that energy efficiency improvements and an overall reduction of primary energy need to almost half of today's level are a strong prerequisite for fulfilling energy transition targets.…”

Section: Socio-technical Interdependencies In the Energy Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

A phase model for the low-carbon transformation of energy systems in the MENA region

et al. 2020

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Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of subsequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases ("Take-off renewables", "System integration", "Power to fuel/gases", "Towards 100% renewables"), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.

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Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies for achieving the 1.5 °C target – insights from a comparison of German bottom-up energy scenarios

Abstract: Knoop (2018) Long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies for achieving the 1.5 °C target-insights from a comparison of German bottom-up energy scenarios, Carbon

Cited by 13 publications

References 50 publications

A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

Water Demand Scenarios for Electricity Generation at the Global and Regional Levels

A phase model for the low-carbon transformation of energy systems in the MENA region

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