Long-Term Impact of Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfires on Mortality

Shaposhnikov, Dmitry; Revich, Boris; Bellander, Tom; Bedada, Getahun Bero; Bottai, Matteo; Харькова, Т Л; Kvasha, Ekaterina; Lind, Tomas; Pershagen, Göran

doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000000251

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 6 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Significant mortality displacement has been reported in a few studies conducted in Eastern Europe. Kyselý (2004) reported mortality displacement following heat waves in the Czech Republic, [ 15 ] and Shaposhnikov et al (2015) reported that mortality displacement in Moscow occurred over the months following the 2010 heat wave [ 16 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia

Åström

Rekker

et al. 2016

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundOn-going climate change is predicted to result in a growing number of extreme weather events—such as heat waves—throughout Europe. The effect of high temperatures and heat waves are already having an important impact on public health in terms of increased mortality, but studies from an Estonian setting are almost entirely missing. We investigated mortality in relation to high summer temperatures and the time course of mortality in a coastal and inland region of Estonia.MethodsWe collected daily mortality data and daily maximum temperature for a coastal and an inland region of Estonia. We applied a distributed lag non-linear model to investigate heat related mortality and the time course of mortality in Estonia.ResultsWe found an immediate increase in mortality associated with temperatures exceeding the 75th percentile of summer maximum temperatures, corresponding to approximately 23°C. This increase lasted for a couple of days in both regions. The total effect of elevated temperatures was not lessened by significant mortality displacement.DiscussionWe observed significantly increased mortality in Estonia, both on a country level as well as for a coastal region and an inland region with a more continental climate. Heat related mortality was higher in the inland region as compared to the coastal region, however, no statistically significant differences were observed. The lower risks in coastal areas could be due to lower maximum temperatures and cooling effects of the sea, but also better socioeconomic condition. Our results suggest that region specific estimates of the impacts of temperature extremes on mortality are needed.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A reduction in mortality following a heat wave has been observed in some studies, a phenomenon called mortality displacement or harvesting [ 13 – 15 ]. The increased mortality during the 2010 heat wave in Russia was followed by months of lower than normal mortality in Moscow [ 16 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia

Åström

Rekker

et al. 2016

PLoS ONE

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For instance, California heat wave occurring in 2006 was reported to be associated with approximately 16,166 excess emergency department visits and 1182 excess hospitalizations [ 5 ]. And in the summer of 2010, Moscow and Western Russia suffered an unprecedented heat wave both in strength and duration, resulting in 55,000 excess heat-related deaths [ 6 ]. From a pathophysiological point of view, heat waves were associated with dehydration, increased blood viscosity and impairment of the endothelial function, which would in return increase the risk for thrombo-embolic diseases and cardiovascular events [ 7 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China

Zhang

Feng

et al. 2017

glob health res policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundThere was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems.MethodsWe developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May–September) in Wuhan, China during 2003–2010.ResultsHeat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature ≥ 99.0th percentile and duration ≥ 3 days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age ≥ 65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting.ConclusionThese findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41256-017-0030-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

show abstract

“…Третьим этапом стало исследование так называемого эффекта жатвы или смещения смертности после волны жары с сентября 2010 г. по декабрь 2012 г. Для вычисления ожидаемой смертности была использована та же модель, что и на первом этапе, определена величина смещения смертности -отношение дефицита смертности после волны жары, накопленного к какой-то определенной дате (например, к концу года), к суммарной дополнительной смертности в период волны жары [7].…”

Section: материал и методыunclassified

New epidemiological model for assessment of the impact of extremely hot weather and air pollution on mortality (in case of the Moscow heat wave of 2010)

Revich¹,

Shaposhnikov²,

Pershagen³

2015

Profil. med.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Волны жары и загрязнение воздуха от лесных пожаров представляют значительный риск для здоровья населения. Климатические модели показывают, что в будущем ожидается увеличение интенсивности и длительности волн жары, в том числе в умеренных широтах [1]. В частности, при пожарах происходит выброс мелкодисперсных взвешенных веществ (РМ 10), но до сих пор не было получено доказательств совместного воздействия продолжительной жары и обусловленного лесными пожарами загрязнения воздуха на здоровье. Продолжительная жара летом 2010 г. в Москве привела к возгоранию лесов и торфяников вблизи города. Изучение показателя смертности в Москве в этот период позволило получить прямое

show abstract

Long-Term Impact of Moscow Heat Wave and Wildfires on Mortality

Cited by 19 publications

References 6 publications

High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia

High Summer Temperatures and Mortality in Estonia

Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China

New epidemiological model for assessment of the impact of extremely hot weather and air pollution on mortality (in case of the Moscow heat wave of 2010)

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About