Long-term epidemiological dynamics of dengue in Barbados – one of the English-speaking Caribbean countries

Kumar, Alok; Hilaire, Marquita Gittens–St.; Nielsen, Anders

doi:10.1017/s0950268818000900

Cited by 8 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…This term potentially allows for changes in population immunity between outbreak years, lapses in vector control, and other slowly changing factors, such as changes in mosquito-control intensity and the introduction of new dengue virus serotypes or other viruses, which could be mistaken for dengue. Note that chikungunya and Zika viruses were introduced to Barbados in 2014 and at the end of 2015, respectively [ 5 , 37 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These diseases are transmitted principally by the female Aedes aegypti , which is a mostly domestic, urban mosquito that lays its eggs in water-bearing containers in and around the home. Over a 5-year period (2012 to 2016), Barbados reported a total of 7,298 dengue cases [ 4 ], with most cases reported in children up to 15 years of age [ 5 ]. Three outbreaks of dengue fever were reported during that period (2013, 2014, and 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three outbreaks of dengue fever were reported during that period (2013, 2014, and 2016). Recent studies reported an upward trend in dengue transmission in Barbados from 2006 to 2015, with all 4 dengue serotypes (dengue virus [DENV]-1 through DENV-4) cocirculating in the population [ 5 ]. Illness due to dengue virus is estimated to cost $321.4 million USD per year in the Caribbean (excluding the costs of vector control and other prevention programmes) [ 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most recently, investigators analysed monthly dengue cases from 2006 to 2015 and found a positive correlation between rainfall and relative humidity of the same month. However, they did not assess lagged relationships [ 5 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Lowe

Gasparrini

Meerbeeck³

et al. 2018

PLoS Med

163

170

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BackgroundOver the last 5 years (2013–2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016.Methods and findingsDistributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure–lag–response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure–lag–response functions of these indicators—rather than linear effects for individual lags—more appropriately described the climate–disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika.ConclusionWe present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart d...

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Lowe

Gasparrini

Meerbeeck³

et al. 2018

PLoS Med

163

170

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This study focused on the perspectives of health and climate stakeholders from the countries of Barbados and Dominica (Figure 1), SIDS in the eastern Caribbean, as well as regional Caribbean stakeholders. There is a high burden of arboviral diseases in both countries [44–48] (Table 1). These countries were selected because of the regional and national interest in building on previous projects, wherein the health sector identified climate services as a top priority for the management of arboviruses.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Co-developing climate services for public health: stakeholder needs and perceptions for the prevention and control ofAedes-transmitted diseases in the Caribbean

Stewart-Ibarra

Romero

Hinds

et al. 2019

Preprint

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4 3 Background: Small island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean region are 4 4 challenged with managing the health outcomes of a changing climate. Health and climate 4 5 sectors have partnered to co-develop climate services to improve the management of 4 6 these diseases, for example, through the development of climate-driven early warning 4 7 systems. The objective of this study was to identify health and climate stakeholder 4 8 perceptions and needs in the Caribbean, with respect to the development of climate 4 9 7 1 Conclusions: These findings support the creation of interdisciplinary and intersectoral 7 2 communities of practices and the co-design of climate services for the Caribbean public 7 3 health sector. By fostering the effective use of climate information within health policy, 7 4research and practice, nations will have greater capacity to adapt to a changing climate. 7 5 7 6

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Global, regional, and national dengue burden from 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2017

et al. 2021

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Background Dengue is one of the most common vector-borne diseases globally, however, its burden is poorly quantified. Hence, we aimed to report the dengue burden in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. Methods Following the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, we analysed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of dengue in geographically defined populations worldwide between 1990 and 2017. We also determined the association between development levels and dengue burden. All estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings Globally, the total number of dengue cases increased from 23 283 274 (95% UI 453 180.7–51 840 670) in 1990 to 104 771 911 (95% UI 63 759 019–158 870 031) in 2017. The age-standardised incidence rate increased from 431.6 (8.4–961.0) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1371.3 (834.5–2079.3) per 100 000 population in 2017. In addition, the number of deaths due to dengue increased from approximately16 957 (7 613–30 091) in 1990 to 40 467 (17 620–49 778) in 2017. Meanwhile, the global age-standardised death rate increased from 0.31 (0.14–0•56) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0.53 (0.23–0•65) per 100 000 population in 2017. Overall, there were 2 922 630 DALYs (1 629 424–3 967 492) attributed to dengue in 2017 globally, an increase of 107.6% since 1990 (1 407 571 DALYs [624 016.4–2 510 025]), and the age-standardised DALY rate increased from 26.10 (11.57–46.53) per 100 000 population to 38.25 (21.33–51.93) per 100 000 population between 1990 and 2017. The association between socio-demographic index (SDI) and dengue-related DALYs suggested that the lowest age-standardised DALY rates were found in countries in the low and high-SDI quintile in 2017, and from 1990 to 2017, the age-standardized DALY rate tended to increase in regions with the lowest SDI but declined in regions with the highest SDI. There was a nonlinear association between the socio-demographic index and the healthcare access and quality index and age-standardised DALY rates. Interpretation Dengue is a major public health challenge worldwide. While there is remarkable international variation in its incidence, the dengue burden is increasing globally. The results of this study could be useful for policy makers to implement cost-effective interventions and reduce the dengue burden, particularly in countries with high incidence or increasing burden. Funding This work was supported by a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (grant numbers 81,800,041 and 82,000,078).

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Long-term epidemiological dynamics of dengue in Barbados – one of the English-speaking Caribbean countries

Cited by 8 publications

References 36 publications

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

Co-developing climate services for public health: stakeholder needs and perceptions for the prevention and control ofAedes-transmitted diseases in the Caribbean

Global, regional, and national dengue burden from 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2017

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