BackgroundOver the last 5 years (2013–2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016.Methods and findingsDistributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure–lag–response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure–lag–response functions of these indicators—rather than linear effects for individual lags—more appropriately described the climate–disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika.ConclusionWe present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart d...
The present study aims to determine the prevalence of self-reported sleep duration and sleep habits and their associated factors in patients with type 2 diabetes in Trinidad. This was a cross-sectional multicenter study. There were 291 patients with type 2 diabetes studied. Sleep habits were assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey sleep disorder questionnaire. Demographic, anthropometric and biochemical data were also collected. The sample had a mean age of 58.8 years; 66.7% were female. The mean BMI was 28.9 kg/m2. The prevalence of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) was 11.3%. The prevalence of patients with short sleep (≤6 hours) was 28.5%. The prevalence of patients with poor sleep was 63.9%. Poor sleep was associated with age, intensive anti-diabetic treatment and longer duration of diabetes. Short sleep was associated with intensive antidiabetic treatment and BMI, while EDS was associated with increased BMI. In a sample of patients with type 2 diabetes, a high prevalence of self-reported sleep duration and unhealthy sleep habits was found. There needs to be an increased awareness of sleep conditions in adults with type 2 diabetes by doctors caring for these patients.
BackgroundSmall island developing states (SIDS) in the Caribbean region are challenged with managing the health outcomes of a changing climate. Health and climate sectors have partnered to co-develop climate services to improve the management of emerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, for example, through the development of climate-driven early warning systems. The objective of this study was to identify health and climate stakeholder perceptions and needs in the Caribbean, with respect to the development of climate services for arboviruses.MethodsStakeholders included public decision makers and practitioners from the climate and health sectors at the regional (Caribbean) level and from the countries of Dominica and Barbados. From April to June 2017, we conducted interviews (n = 41), surveys (n = 32), and national workshops with stakeholders. Survey responses were tabulated, and audio recordings were transcribed and analyzed using qualitative coding to identify responses by research topic, country/region, and sector.ResultsHealth practitioners indicated that their jurisdiction is currently experiencing an increased risk of arboviral diseases associated with climate variability, and most anticipated that this risk will increase in the future. National health sectors reported financial limitations and a lack of technical expertise in geographic information systems (GIS), statistics, and modeling, which constrained their ability to implement climate services for arboviruses. National climate sectors were constrained by a lack of personnel. Stakeholders highlighted the need to strengthen partnerships with the private sector, academia, and civil society. They identified a gap in local research on climate-arbovirus linkages, which constrained the ability of the health sector to make informed decisions. Strategies to strengthen the climate-health partnership included a top-down approach by engaging senior leadership, multi-lateral collaboration agreements, national committees on climate and health, and shared spaces of dialogue. Mechanisms for mainstreaming climate services for health operations to control arboviruses included climatic-health bulletins and an online GIS platform that would allow for regional data sharing and the generation of spatiotemporal epidemic forecasts. Stakeholders identified a 3-month forecast of arboviral illness as the optimal time frame for an epidemic forecast.ConclusionsThese findings support the creation of interdisciplinary and intersectoral ‘communities of practice’ and the co-design of climate services for the Caribbean public health sector. By fostering the effective use of climate information within health policy, research and practice, nations will have greater capacity to adapt to a changing climate.
A cross-sectional survey of all patients aged 30 -65 in four general practices within one Local Health Care Co-operative in Fife, Scotland was undertaken to measure the prevalence of family history of colorectal, breast and ovarian cancer. A total of 7619 patients aged 30 -65 responded to a postal questionnaire (response rate 59%). In all, 17% of respondents (1324, 95% Cl 16 -18%) reported a relative affected by colorectal, breast or ovarian cancer. Of those, 6% (78, 95% CI 5 -7%) met the Scottish guidelines for referral for genetics counselling. In all, 2% (24, 95% CI 1 -3%) of all individuals with an affected relative had received genetic counselling and risk assessment. Of these, 25% (6, 95% CI 8 -42%) met the moderate-or high-risk criteria for developing a cancer. In conclusion, the number of patients who are at a significantly increased risk of cancer on the basis of a family history is small (approximately 10 per General Practitioner (GP) list). It is therefore unrealistic to expect GPs to develop expertise in genetic risk estimation. A simple family history chart or pedigree is one way that a GP can, within the constraints of a GP consultation, determine which patients should be reassured and which referred to the local cancer genetic clinic.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.