Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog

Xiong, Zhihua; Zhuang, Jiancang; Zhou, Shuhua

doi:10.1785/0120190066

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…These results are similar to the spatial patterns of background seismicity rate reported by Xiong et al. (2019). On the other hand, background seismicity shows local temporal variations.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…Regions with high background seismicity rate are found in major tectonic structures, including the Shanxi Rift and the Z-P fault system, where geodetic strain rates are high and large historic earthquakes were concentrated (Figure 9). These results are similar to the spatial patterns of background seismicity rate reported by Xiong et al (2019). On the other hand, background seismicity shows local temporal variations.…”

Section: Background Seismicity: Spatiotemporal Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 90%

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Aftershocks and Background Seismicity in Tangshan and the Rest of North China

2021

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At 3:42 a.m. (UTC+8) on July 28, 1976, a magnitude (M s ) 7.8 earthquake hit Tangshan, an industrial city in North China just 150 km east of Beijing, causing a surface rupture >47-km long (Figure 1) (Guo et al., 2017). About 15 h later, a second shock, of M s 7.1, occurred ∼40 km to the east-northeast on a different fault and ruptured surface >6-km long (Guo et al., 2017). These two events, together referred to as the Great Tangshan earthquake, obliterated the city of Tangshan and killed >240,000 people, making it the deadliest earthquake of the 20th century (Chen et al., 1988). More than 40 years have passed, but the memory of the devastation remains fresh. Thus, a series of moderate (M ≥ 4.5) earthquakes in recent years near the 1976 Tangshan earthquake rupture zone, including an M s 5.1 event on July 12, 2020, have raised social concern and scientific debate: are these events aftershocks of the Great Tangshan earthquake? Or are they indicators of stress buildup for future large earthquakes in Tangshan or somewhere in North China? North China, or the geologically defined North China block, includes the North China Plain and the mountain ranges and the Ordos Plateau to the west. It is an Archean craton that was reactivated during the

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“…These results are similar to the spatial patterns of background seismicity rate reported by Xiong et al. (2019). On the other hand, background seismicity shows local temporal variations.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Background Seismicity: Spatiotemporal Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 90%

Aftershocks and Background Seismicity in Tangshan and the Rest of North China

2021

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“…Regions with high background seismicity rate are found in major tectonic structures, including the Shanxi Rift and the Z-P fault system, where geodetic strain rates are high and large historic earthquakes were concentrated (Figure 3.12). These results are similar to the spatial patterns of background seismicity rate reported by Xiong et al (2019). On the other hand, background seismicity shows local temporal variations.…”

Section: Background Seismicity: Spatiotemporal Variabilitysupporting

confidence: 90%

Spatiotemporal patterns of earthquakes and their implications for earthquake hazards

Chen¹

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[EMBARGOED UNTIL 5/1/2023] This work focuses on characterizing spatiotemporal patterns of earthquakes, their possible causes, and their implications for seismic hazard assessment. I studied both local and global earthquakes in the view of complex fault systems. Specifically, I studied the background seismicity and long-lived aftershock activities in intraplate North China and the Central and Eastern United State (CEUS), and characterized the correlation between strain rate and seismicity and evaluated the prediction power of strain rate in different tectonic settings. I found that periodic or quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence on individual faults, as predicted by the elastic rebound model, is not common in nature. Instead, most earthquake sequences are complex and variable, and often show clusters of events separated by long but irregular intervals of quiescence. The common earthquake clustering may be caused by earthquake-induced viscoelastic relaxation and fault interaction. Most earthquake sequences are burstier than the Poisson model, implying a higher probability of repeating events soon after a large earthquake. Possible long-lived aftershocks are found in intraplate North China and the CEUS. Background seismicity in intraplate regions may vary with time, highlighting the complexity of intraplate seismicity. Mistakenly identifying long-lived aftershocks as background earthquakes may overestimate seismic hazard in intraplate regions. The correlation between strain rate and seismicity varies between different tectonic settings and is time-dependent. Good strain rate-seismicity correlations are found in plate boundary regions and during seismically active periods, while no correlations are found in stable continents and during inactive periods. All these variations need to be considered in hazard assessment.

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“…Zhuang (2011) reduces n p to 3 or 4. Xiong et al (2019) compare two variable bandwidth kernel estimates, with their optimal bandwidth parameters obtained using cross-validation, with two other nonparametric methods, a Bayesian smoothing procedure on a tessellation configuration with smoothness prior, and a newly proposed incomplete centroidal Voronoi tessellation method. They find that the performance differences among the methods are marginal in estimating the seismicity rate.…”

Section: Choice Of Bandwidthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions

Zhuang

2019

Jpn J Stat Data Sci

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The Hawkes self-exciting model has become one of the most popular point-process models in many research areas in the natural and social sciences because of its capacity for investigating the clustering effect and positive interactions among individual events/particles. This article discusses a general nonparametric framework for the estimation, extensions, and post-estimation diagnostics of Hawkes models, in which we use the kernel functions as the basic smoothing tool.

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Long‐Term Earthquake Hazard in North China Estimated from a Modern Catalog

Cited by 8 publications

References 38 publications

Aftershocks and Background Seismicity in Tangshan and the Rest of North China

Aftershocks and Background Seismicity in Tangshan and the Rest of North China

Spatiotemporal patterns of earthquakes and their implications for earthquake hazards

Estimation, diagnostics, and extensions of nonparametric Hawkes processes with kernel functions

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