Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model

Tokimatsu, Koji; Murakami, Shinsuke; Adachi, Tsuyoshi; Ryota,; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Makoto

doi:10.1007/s13563-017-0109-8

Cited by 20 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The resource balance models are formulated through linear programming by dynamic optimization according to perfect foresight (i.e., demand and unit cost of variables are given deterministically) to minimize the discounted supply costs covering the overall lifecycle of resources and fully integrated bottom-up technologies. Other studies contain the details of the models (Tokimatsu et al 2016c(Tokimatsu et al , 2017a(Tokimatsu et al , 2017b. Appendix 3 describes the model linkages, objective functions, and variable lists.…”

Section: Three Resource Balance Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Contrastingly, our study evaluates endpoint impacts on biodiversity and primary productivity in a hard-linked manner. Further, other studies did not use the mineral resource model, whereas our study is unique in that the mineral model (Tokimatsu et al 2017b) is used in our framework.…”

Section: Focus On Lifecycle Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model includes production, transportation, conversion, final production, disposal, and recycling. The energy model (Tokimatsu et al 2016c) and the non-fuel mineral resources balance model (Tokimatsu et al 2017b), the landuse model for biomass and food (Tokimatsu et al 2017a) calculate the discounted sum of supply costs to determine the structure of demand and supply balance of fuel minerals (i.e., energy) and non-fuel minerals.…”

Section: Outlinementioning

confidence: 99%

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Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century

Tokimatsu

Tang

Yasuoka³

et al. 2020

Int J Life Cycle Assess

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Purpose Despite the long-standing demand for research on dynamic lifecycle assessment (LCA) for policymaking, only a few studies have addressed this subject in conjunction with other systems thinking disciplines, such as energy systems models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs), which have achieved tremendous success in assessing climate policies in future scenarios. This study explains our methodological advances in the global application of LCA incorporated in IAMs, specifically dose-response functions, models, and future scenarios. Methods We investigate the application of the lifecycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME), developed under the current environmental situation in Japan and globally, to be consistent and compatible with our IAM, which comprises three resource balance models and a simplified climate model. The IAM endogenously generates most inventories consistent with energy scenarios and climate policies linked with the applied LIME. The IAM and LIME are formulated to minimize the discounted sum of supplying the cost of resources over their lifecycles (i.e., from development to end-of-life) to generate time evolutions for the endpoint impacts over this century on a global scale with/without the 2-degree Celsius (2DC) target in a 100% renewable energy scenario. Results and discussion Unlike existing LCA+ESM/IAM studies, which focus on power generation technologies and related (in)direct embedded energy consumption on a lifecycle basis, our model's expansion to mineral and biomass resources, in addition to energy, has the following novel results: (1) The following inventories in the 2DC target are generally lower than those in business as usual (BAU): temperature and sea level rise, natural resource, and waste discharge; further, SOx emissions are significantly reduced by reducing coal production while increasing forestry. (2) The environmental impacts on the four endpoints of minerals, land use, and land-use change, with the exclusion of energy-related impacts, are significantly larger than those related to energy. (3) Finally, by ensuring inventory reduction, the 2DC target scenario can reduce overall endpoint impacts (by maximum around 20%), except the impacts on biodiversity resulting from forestry expansion to meet predetermined targets. Conclusions Unlike mainstream IAM analyses, we incorporate LIME, instead of energy-and biomass-related resource and climate change impacts alone; our model thus provides a comprehensive perspective on various natural resources and their impacts on a lifecycle basis. The exclusion of the weighting process and retention of the four endpoints enable us to easily interpret the results. Further, this application of LCA to IAM enables us to further understand and assess natural resources and environmental impacts.

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Section: Three Resource Balance Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Focus On Lifecycle Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Outlinementioning

confidence: 99%

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Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century

Tokimatsu

Tang

Yasuoka³

et al. 2020

Int J Life Cycle Assess

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“…Furthermore, high material consumption rates are linked to low ore grades and high strip ratios, thus, raising questions regarding physical or economic sustainability, especially in developing countries with poor legislative infrastructure that is insufficient to monitor and regulate environmental vulnerability. Various studies have revealed that hidden flows created by resources can be accounted through the ore grade and strip ratio from "used" and "unused" material along their lifecycle (Bringezu et al 2004;Wuppertal Institute 2014;Tokimatsu et al 2017;Tokimatsu et al 2019;Nakajima et al 2019;Watari et al 2019). For example, during metal mining, economically valuable ore material, commercially valueless material comprising gangue, and "unused" extracted material, such as overburden, are produced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In reality, a wide distribution of ore grade is mined. The intrinsic relationship between environmental impacts and declining ore grade indicates that hidden flows of the material output exist within the system interaction (Tokimatsu et al 2017). Therefore, in this study, we aimed to measure the environmental vulnerability through the Au, Cu Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn TMRs to delineate the environmental impacts of mining on the environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future availability of mineral resources: ultimate reserves and total material requirement

Teseletso

Adachi

2021

Miner Econ

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Mineral resources are fundamental to drive the economic growth in a modern society. Although these resources have extensively been crossed referenced as "finite," their metal production has increased steadily over the decades. The concept of "peak oil" has been under extensive debate, whereas that of "peak minerals" of individual metals lacks in-depth studies. This study aimed to provide a brief account of the ultimate recoverable resources for copper (Cu), gold (Au), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). We utilized grade tonnage curves to illustrate future resource availability against a decline in the metal ore grade. Furthermore, an environmental indicator was calculated based on the total material requirement (TMR) to evaluate the present and future trends. Consequently, a visible decline in the metal grade for Cu, Ni, Au, Pb, and Zn was observed, whereas the future ore grade for Fe was projected to decline gradually. Furthermore, we estimated that as ultimate recoverable reserves peak approaches, metals will be recoverable at lower grades. The TMR increased for all metals, thus, indicating potential vulnerability to the environment. The findings indicate that awareness on the declining metal grades, environmental impacts of metals, and future mineral supplies will increase; however, other factors that govern the dynamics of recoverability and availability of these metals will offset the peak of these resources.

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The Availability of Critical Minerals for China’s Renewable Energy Development: An Analysis of Physical Supply

et al. 2020

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Long-term demand and supply of non-ferrous mineral resources by a mineral balance model

Cited by 20 publications

References 31 publications

Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century

Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century

Future availability of mineral resources: ultimate reserves and total material requirement

The Availability of Critical Minerals for China’s Renewable Energy Development: An Analysis of Physical Supply

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