Logistic Social Trends

Hart, Hornell

doi:10.1086/219651

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Yet the characteristic evolution of a technology is logistic: Innovations come slowly at first, then accelerate, and finally come more slowly and with greater difficulty (Hart, 1945). Throughout this sequence, early innovations will ordinarily give the largest increments of improvement, while with later innovations the increments of improvement become progressively smaller and harder to achieve (Wilkinson, 1973, pp.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complexity and the productivity of innovation

2010

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Innovation underpins the industrial way of life. It is assumed implicitly both that it will continue to do so, and that it will produce solutions to the problems we face involving climate and resources. These assumptions underlie the thinking of many economists and the political leaders whom they influence. Such a view assumes that innovation in the future will be as productive as it has been in the recent past. To test whether this is likely to be so, we investigate the productivity of innovation in the United States using data from the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. The results suggest that the conventional optimistic view may be unwarranted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hart (1945) showed that innovation in specific technologies follows a logistic curve: Patenting rises slowly at first, then more rapidly and finally declines. Rostow (1980, p. 171) extended this observation in his attempt to explain why economic growth slows in developed countries.…”

Section: Complexity and Innovationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity and the productivity of innovation

2010

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“…The method of measuring areas on historical maps was pioneered by Hart (1945), who graphed the record sizes reached by landborne empires. Marano (1973) used the area of the largest empire at any given time to estimate the arrival of world government.…”

Section: Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expansion and Contraction Patterns of Large Polities: Context for Russia

Taagepera

1997

Int Studies Q

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Over 5,000 years of history, the effective number of separate political entities has decreased from close to a million to 24, if going by geographical area, and from about a thousand to 15, if going by population. These changes have followed interconnected exponential patterns which extrapolate to a single world polity around year 4000. Within this long‐term trend, three sudden increases in polity sizes occur: around 3000 BC, 600 BC, and AD 1600. This study tests the exponential model against area and population data for five millennia. It also gives tables and graphs of area versus time for all major polities since AD 600. The median duration of large polities at more than half the peak size has been 130 years, and it has not changed over 5,000 years. Polities that expand slower tend to last slightly longer. The prospects of the Moscow‐centered state are discussed in the light of these findings.

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“…Consequently, growth processes relevant to the quantitative accumulation of a given structure, as "specific" evolution, are manifest in the logistic, the Gompertz, or more generally referred to as the sigmoid of "S" growth curve [24]. By comparison, "general" evolution is manifest in a pattern of "logistic surges" indicative of a sequential pattern in which one structure (stage) gives rise to the next (Hart, 1945).…”

Section: The Dynamics Of Culture Evolutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Stages of Economic Evolution and the Russian/USSR/Russian Experience

Brinkman

Bovt

1994

International Journal of Social Economics

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Prerequisite Paradigmatic BoundariesThe culture of Russia has experienced an amazing metamorphosis. The process of restructuring continues on to the current period, as one stage of culture evolution gives rise to the next. This transformation manifest in the Russian/USSR/Russian experience, though at times chaotic and disruptive, need not necessarily be indicative of malady per se. Structural transformation, as perestroika, can also be positive in that it serves as a necessary condition for the ongoing acceleration, uskorenie, of culture evolution[1] (Aganbegian (1988a, p. 1)). A basic hypothesis of this article is that ongoing culture evolution is predicted on a continuous transformation of culture, both material and social.The question then becomes, given the need for structural transformation, which new structure will best serve the cause of promoting the advance (acceleration) of civilization? In the context of the modern era, the anthropologists' conception of culture can be used as the conceptual equivalent of civilization [2]. By definition, as "that complex hole", culture embodies the "holistic" emphasis of the "new thinking" now taking place (

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Logistic Social Trends

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Complexity and the productivity of innovation

Complexity and the productivity of innovation

Expansion and Contraction Patterns of Large Polities: Context for Russia

The Stages of Economic Evolution and the Russian/USSR/Russian Experience

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