Logic, Reasoning and a Programming Language for Simulating Economic and Business Processes with Artificially Intelligent Agents

Edmonds, Bruce; Moss, Scott; Wallis, Steve

doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-1427-1_15

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Translated this example means: that it will say that it will go to El Farol' s if the trend predicted over observed number going over the last two weeks is greater than 5/3 (the total population was 5 in this example); but it will only actually go if it said it would go or if barGoer-3 said it will go. The model was implemented in a declarative forward-chaining programming language called SDML [4,10] which has been written specifically for agent-based modelling in the fields of business, management, organisation theory and economics. SDML is particularly suited to this model because is provides facilities for the easy programming of multi-layered object-orientated structures (so the populations of genes within a population of agents is easy) with several levels of time (in this case weeks and days) 2 .…”

Section: Extending the El Farol Bar Model With Learning And Communicamentioning

confidence: 99%

Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol Bar: Modelling the Emergence of Heterogeneity

Edmonds

1998

IFAC Proceedings Volumes

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Brian Arthur's 'El Farol Bar' model is extended so that the agents also learn and communicate. The learning and communication is implemented using an evolutionary process acting upon a population of mental models inside each agent. The evolutionary process is based on a Genetic Programming algorithm. Each gene is composed of two tree-structures: one to control its action and one to determine its communication.A detailed case-study from the simulations show how the agents have differentiated so that by the end of the run they had taken on very different roles. Thus the introduction of a flexible learning process and an expressive internal representation has allowed the emergence of heterogeneity.

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Section: Extending the El Farol Bar Model With Learning And Communicamentioning

confidence: 99%

Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol Bar: Modelling the Emergence of Heterogeneity

Edmonds

1998

IFAC Proceedings Volumes

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“…Sahel model with its ABM approach provides a test bed in better understanding "emergent" properties in decision-making modelling and provides an appropriate framework for further vulnerability issues investigations. According to the vulnerability protocol of NewWater workshop 6 any formal framework for assessing vulnerability must specify (1) the exposure units which are being considered (households and individual household members), (2) the set of stresses that represent any associated risks (i.e. drought, social conflicts), and (3) the abilities of exposure units to cope, recover, or adapt (social response of the households to the environment).…”

Section: Conclusion and Further Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In part, the declarative approach described here arises out of the history of development and application of the SDML language at the Centre for Policy Modelling[6]. In the course of further development on declarative modeling two approaches were developed -database approach[15] and Jess-Repast approach.…”

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confidence: 99%

Modelling Migration in the Sahel: An Alternative to Cost-Benefit Analysis

Werth

Moss

Advancing Social Simulation: The First World Congress

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Environmental issues pose enormous risks for all populations, but especially for the vulnerable. There have been many attempts to measure the risks and the costs of environmental episodes. Such measurement is seen in many quarters as a matter of increasing urgency as a result of the prospect of climate change. The economic approach to vulnerability measurement is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA). CBA itself is predicated on the proposition that all relevant impacts of climate change can be given a numerical value. A clear argument for this approach was offered by the late David Pearce [13]. The value to be chosen is what the "market" value of the marginal costs and benefits. Where there is no relevant market, individuals must be able to state what they would pay to be able to stay where they are or the money they would accept as an inducement to move from where they are. In many, perhaps most, cases valuation is by no means so simple since actions are taken in response to environmental and political events. In this paper, we investigate one such case concerning the Sahel region at the edge of the Sahara. In the Sahel 1 , typically individuals migrate but who migrates and whither they migrate is a household decision. It would be remarkable if such decisions taken by one household were not influenced by the behaviour of other households. Consequently, any attempt to value migration will depend not only on environmental and political events of the moment but also on the social norms that emerge as household decisions are reached and as those decisions are discussed among members (or heads) of households in the same communities. This sort of social decision making does not fit easily with the sort of economic theory with its monetization arguments on which CBA is based.[8] Due to the way a standard economical approach measures and evaluates cost and benefit, lots of social context in the examined domain gets lost. This social context, in its turn, might have a significant influence on the outcomes of the CBA results and thus be never evaluated. The core question addressed in this paper is whether and how agent-based social simulation can provide a superior alternative to conventional economic analysis. In particular, do models constrained by evidence rather than simplistic theory provide a better guide to policy? The model reported here demonstrates that the answer to this question is in the affirmative. 2 The evidence 2 The Sahel is subject to the greatest climatic variation of any region in the world 3. One feature of this variability is the unpredictable occurrence and duration of droughts. Several studies [1, 14] have assessed the impact of intermittent droughts and their resulting catastrophic effects. These circumstances of the case offer a good testbed for validating the theories postulated by this paper about agent-based modelling being a better alternative to CBA than a conventional economic approach. CBA will be 1 The sourthern edge of the Sahara desert covering parts of Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Chad, et...

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A Cognitively Rich Methodology for Modelling Emergent Socioeconomic Phenomena

Moss¹

1999

Advances in Computational Economics

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Logic, Reasoning and a Programming Language for Simulating Economic and Business Processes with Artificially Intelligent Agents

Cited by 8 publications

References 1 publication

Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol Bar: Modelling the Emergence of Heterogeneity

Gossip, Sexual Recombination and the El Farol Bar: Modelling the Emergence of Heterogeneity

Modelling Migration in the Sahel: An Alternative to Cost-Benefit Analysis

A Cognitively Rich Methodology for Modelling Emergent Socioeconomic Phenomena

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