Living longer, working longer: analysing time trends in working life expectancy in Germany from a health perspective between 2002 and 2018

Abstract

Population ageing poses growing challenges to social security systems, in particular to public pension funds. The study analyses how Working Life Expectancy (WLE) and Healthy Working Life Expectancy (HWLE) in terms of three health indicators developed in Germany. Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) from 2002 to 2018 (n = 211,141), time trends in labour force rates, mental and physical Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), self-rated health (SRH) and the respective combinations (health indicator*labour force) were analysed for all respondents aged 18–74. WLE and HWLE were calculated using the Sullivan method. WLE and HWLE in men and women at age 18 and 50 clearly increased over time. These increases in HWLE were found in terms of all three health indicators. This development was mainly driven by the clear increase of the labour force rates, since the shares of individuals with good and satisfactory SRH or average and good HRQoL remained largely stable over time. The results show that from a health perspective there have been potentials for increases in WLE during the past two decades and that increasingly more healthy life years are spent economically active. However, life years in the labour force but in poor health have increased, too. The absence of clear improvements in health emphasises the importance of current and future preventive measures to maintain health, especially among the middle-aged and older labour force.

Estimating trends in working life expectancy based on health insurance data from Germany – Challenges and advantages

“…Nevertheless, comparisons with previous research can provide some insight into whether general trends and educational inequalities in the insurance population differ from the findings reported for the total German population obtained from survey data. Comparing our results with the WLE at age 50 based on the ILO labor force concept, the overall level of WLE tends to be lower than the survey-based results ( Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ). Similarly, the level of WLE at young working-age is lower in our study than those reported by Eurostat ( Eurostat, 2022a ) and another study based on the German Socio-economic Panel ( Heller et al, 2022 ).…”

“…Comparing our results with the WLE at age 50 based on the ILO labor force concept, the overall level of WLE tends to be lower than the survey-based results ( Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ). Similarly, the level of WLE at young working-age is lower in our study than those reported by Eurostat ( Eurostat, 2022a ) and another study based on the German Socio-economic Panel ( Heller et al, 2022 ). This is in accordance with our expectation and may be explained by the differences in the statistical methods used (Sullivan versus multistate life approaches) and because individuals with low SES (and therefore with low WLE) are overrepresented compared to the general German population.…”

“…However, although the general level of WLE reported in this paper is lower, comparing the results with previous research shows that the data reflect time trends in WLE in the general German population well. This holds for time trends at younger ( Eurostat, 2022a ; Heller et al, 2022 ) and older working age ( Dudel et al, 2021 ; Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 ). In line with previous research, our study shows that WLE increased much stronger among women than among men ( Eurostat, 2022a ; Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 ).…”

“…This holds for time trends at younger ( Eurostat, 2022a ; Heller et al, 2022 ) and older working age ( Dudel et al, 2021 ; Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 ). In line with previous research, our study shows that WLE increased much stronger among women than among men ( Eurostat, 2022a ; Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 ). The stronger increase in women led to a narrowing gender gap in WLE over time.…”

“… Dudel et al, 2021 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Nurminen, 2012 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 )). For Germany, studies on trends in WLE reported substantial increases at age 15 ( Eurostat, 2022 ) and 18 ( Heller et al, 2022 ) as well as at age 50 and above ( Heller et al, 2022 ; Loichinger & Weber, 2016 ; Weber & Loichinger, 2020 ) during the last two decades. So far, however, evidence on social inequalities in WLE in Germany is still very limited.…”