Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Panthi, Jeeban; Aryal, Suman; Dahal, Piyush; Bhandari, Parashuram; Krakauer, Nir Y.; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0833-y

Cited by 187 publications

(148 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…During the same period, mountain communities of Nepal also reported that decreasing and erratic rainfall patterns and drought are the most serious hazard for agriculture, causing decreasing food production and crop failure. A livelihood vulnerability assessment in the GRB found that, due to limited adaptive capacity and greater climate variability, rural people in the mountain zone were more vulnerable than those in the lowland and hill zones (Panthi et al 2015b). Poor households without irrigated land were found to be facing greater risks and stresses due to Since drought phenomenon largely depends on precipitation amount and surface temperature which greatly affect evapotranspiration and water stress.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

et al. 2015

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This paper presents temporal and spatial pattern of drought phenomena in central Nepal using standardized precipitation index (SPI) at multiple time scales. The study is based on 32 years of monthly precipitation data from 40 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012. Results indicate that, while there is no distinct trend in regional precipitation, interannual variation is large. Trend analysis of drought index shows that most stations are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and trend is stronger for longer drought time scales. Over the study period, the summer 123Nat Hazards (2016) 80:1913-1932 DOI 10.1007/s11069-015-2055 season of 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009 and winters 2006, 2008 and 2009 were the worst widespread droughts. These dry periods have a serious impact on agriculture-livestock production of central Nepal. Better understanding of these SPI dynamics could help in understanding the characteristics of droughts and also to develop effective mitigation strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

et al. 2015

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“…The power of providing household level analysis is also a positive feature of this methodology (Adu et al 2017). We take guidance from work done by Hahn et al (2009) and Panthi et al (2015) and apply it to the specific context of semi-arid regions of Pakistan.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Apart from providing a community comparison, the study also compared vulnerability scores on gender basis and found that female-headed households are more vulnerable as per the index, compared to male-headed households. Panthi et al (2015) applied the methodology for the case of agro-livestock owners in three ecologically different districts in Nepal. Besides throwing light on the site-specific determinants of vulnerability, the study found that a lack of income and livelihood diversification opportunities is the prime causes of high vulnerability in all districts.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hahn et al (2009) have offered a replicable methodology which has been used by many researchers to determine vulnerability in different contexts (e.g. Pandey and Jha, 2012;Shah et al 2013;Panthi et al 2015, Adu et al 2017. Pandey and Jha (2012) used the approach for two communities in rural India in the Lower Himalayan region and provided a comparative analysis of the strengths of rural mountainous livelihoods.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rural areas are characterised by high dependence on agriculture, low human development levels, low adaptive capacities and receive little attention from policymakers (Skoufias et al 2011;Dasgupta et al 2014;Panthi et al 2015). According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Dasgupta et al 2014), climate change introduces grave implications for rural areas through a direct toll on rural livelihoods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rural livelihoods in semi-arid Pakistan are increasingly exposed to climate impacts such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfalls and more intense and frequent climate-related extreme events. This is introducing new risks to the already vulnerable and marginalised societies that lack development and have high poverty rates. This study uses the IPCC Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) approach to analyse the determinants of household livelihood vulnerability defining vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It also determines various adaptation responses that farmers apply and elucidates the reasons why some farmers choose not to adapt to climate change. It focuses on three semi-arid districts in Pakistan (Faisalabad, D.G. Khan and Mardan) and uses a sample of 150 rural agricultural households. As per the LVI scores, D.G. Khan is the most vulnerable district to climate change impacts, followed by Mardan and Faisalabad, respectively. Results show that (a lack of) adaptive capacity plays quite an important role in shaping households' livelihood vulnerability for any given degree of exposure and sensitivity. Besides lower exposure and sensitivity to climate change, extremely low levels of adaptive capacity make Mardan more vulnerable to climate change compared to Faisalabad. The paper argues on people-centric development for rural areas through strengthening of agriculture sector as well as providing rural household opportunities for off-farm livelihoods.

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Nature‐based solutions (NbS) can prevent further climate change and increase local communities' capacity to adapt to the current impacts of climate change. However, the benefits obtained from implementing NbS are not distributed equally across people. Thus, it is key to further understand how people are impacted when implementing NbS. We developed a multi‐objective prioritization approach to identify changes in (i) the biophysical provision of ecosystem services, (ii) optimal allocation of NbS and (iii) monetary benefits when targeting climate mitigation versus climate adaptation goals. We used the increase in metric tons of carbon storage as representative of climate mitigation and the decrease in on‐site and downstream tons of sediment per year as representative of climate adaptation. Planning strategies that target climate mitigation or climate adaptation goals separately represent a loss of between 30% and 60% of the maximum possible carbon sequestration or sediment retention benefits. Conversely, targeting climate mitigation and climate adaptation goals at the same time captured more than 90% of the maximum possible benefits for all objectives. Priority NbS in the mitigation planning strategy included soil and water conservation and forest rehabilitation, while priority NbS in the adaptation planning strategy included grassland rehabilitation and hill terrace improvement. Targeting mitigation and adaptation goals at the same time captures 35M USD (89% of the maximum attainable) in value of carbon restored and retained, and 2M USD (100% of the maximum attainable) of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Conversely, failing to incorporate adaptation goals when developing climate plans only captures 1M of avoided maintenance costs to the KGA hydropower plant. Our approach can be replicated in other locations to promote cost‐effective investments in NbS able to secure both global and local benefits to people. This can improve the outcomes of international climate change financial schemes like the Green Climate Fund and the UN‐REDD+ program. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

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Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Cited by 187 publications

References 34 publications

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis

What Defines Livelihood Vulnerability in Rural Semi-Arid Areas? Evidence from Pakistan

Optimal allocation of nature‐based solutions to achieve climate mitigation and adaptation goals

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