What Defines Livelihood Vulnerability in Rural Semi-Arid Areas? Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

Rural livelihoods in semi-arid Pakistan are increasingly exposed to climate impacts such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfalls and more intense and frequent climate-related extreme events. This is introducing new risks to the already vulnerable and marginalised societies that lack development and have high poverty rates. This study uses the IPCC Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) approach to analyse the determinants of household livelihood vulnerability defining vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It also determines various adaptation responses that farmers apply and elucidates the reasons why some farmers choose not to adapt to climate change. It focuses on three semi-arid districts in Pakistan (Faisalabad, D.G. Khan and Mardan) and uses a sample of 150 rural agricultural households. As per the LVI scores, D.G. Khan is the most vulnerable district to climate change impacts, followed by Mardan and Faisalabad, respectively. Results show that (a lack of) adaptive capacity plays quite an important role in shaping households' livelihood vulnerability for any given degree of exposure and sensitivity. Besides lower exposure and sensitivity to climate change, extremely low levels of adaptive capacity make Mardan more vulnerable to climate change compared to Faisalabad. The paper argues on people-centric development for rural areas through strengthening of agriculture sector as well as providing rural household opportunities for off-farm livelihoods.

Climate Change and Livelihood Vulnerability in Mixed Crop–Livestock Areas: The Case of Province Punjab, Pakistan

“…Our results show BHK is the most vulnerable in terms of higher exposure (0.464) and sensitivity (0.369) due to climate change and natural disasters (Table 4, Figure 4, Appendix C, M 9 ). These vulnerabilities and variations are consistent with previous studies concluding that southern Punjab is more vulnerable to climate change [58,106]. Erratic climatic change and natural disasters such as floods, droughts, and heavy rainfalls badly affect people's livelihoods and increase their vulnerability.…”

“…Such an index-based approach established precedence over other frameworks because it is dependent on secondary data and better planned to provide a local perspective, with a context-based vision for local needs and adaptation response. Therefore, many scholars and researchers followed this approach using different contexts of natural hazards [47,[57][58][59]72,[86][87][88][89][90][91][92]. Studies that are based on primary or secondary data or both provide better vision and a platform to identify and determine the drivers of vulnerability by considering vulnerability as a socially constructed subject [93].…”

“…Approximately 36% of the rural population is poor, and most of the poorest are found in southern Punjab [104,105]. Previous studies stated that farmers in southern Punjab had observed changes in weather patterns and experienced extreme temperatures and delayed precipitation during summer monsoons [25,58,106]. Therefore, this study focuses on the 4 districts of southern Punjab, where the majority of households raise livestock combined with subsistence crop production in the mixed crop-livestock production area (see Figure 1).…”

“…Nevertheless, most scholars have focused on individual crop yields affected by climate change [35,[50][51][52], and risk adaptation and mitigation [25,[53][54][55][56]. Few studies have measured the livelihood vulnerability of households in Pakistan [57,58], and none have considered the livelihood vulnerability of mixed crop-livestock production systems. To our knowledge, there is no other study except for a recent one by Panthi [59] in Nepal using the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LVI (LVI IPCC ), but it lacked relevant major components and subcomponents.…”

Determinants of smallholder farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray National Regional State of Ethiopia

“…These are more devastating on agricultural livelihood and rural poverty [ 12 ]. The adverse effects of climate change on farm-based livelihoods are manifested through shifts in cropping seasons and a loss in agricultural productivity [ 3 , 13 ].…”