LiSET: A Framework for Early‐Stage Life Cycle Screening of Emerging Technologies

185

118

In recent literature, prospective application of life cycle assessment (LCA) at low technology readiness levels (TRL) has gained immense interest for its potential to enable development of emerging technologies with improved environmental performances. However, limited data, uncertain functionality, scale up issues and uncertainties make it very challenging for the standard LCA guidelines to evaluate emerging technologies and requires methodological advances in the current LCA framework. In this paper, we review published literature to identify major methodological challenges and key research efforts to resolve these issues with a focus on recent developments in five major areas: cross-study comparability, data availability and quality, scale-up issues, uncertainty and uncertainty communication, and assessment time. We also provide a number of recommendations for future research to support the evaluation of emerging technologies at low technology readiness levels: (a) the development of a consistent framework and reporting methods for LCA of emerging technologies; (b) the integration of other tools with LCA, such as multicriteria decision analysis, risk analysis, technoeconomic analysis; and (c) the development of a data repository for emerging materials, processes, and technologies. K E Y W O R D S emerging technology, ex ante LCA, industrial ecology, life cycle assessment (LCA), technoeconomic analysis (TEA), technology readiness level (TRL)

Section: Toward a Framework For Lca Of Emerging Technologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: A review

Moni

Mahmud

High

et al. 2019

185

118

“…The case study of the impact of electric vehicle penetration helps to emphasize the need to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies. The second methods paper is titled “LiSET: A framework for early‐stage life cycle screening of emerging technologies”(Hung, Ellingsen, & Majeau‐Bettez, ). This paper identifies a need for tools to rapidly screen large numbers of early‐development technology candidates where data are sparse.…”

Section: Methods For Assessing Emerging Technologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bringing a life cycle perspective to emerging technology development

Bergerson

Cucurachi

Seager

2020

Bringing a life cycle perspective to emerging technology development"While the fundamental approach to conducting an LCA of emerging technologies is akin to that of LCA of existing technologies, emerging technologies pose additional challenges. Despite the growing interest in applying LCA at early stages of technology development, there is a lack of systematic guidance for LCA practitioners to evaluate emerging technologies." Current analysis of new technology typically applies economic, environmental, social, and technical performance assessments separately, conducted by individual specialists with little connection between the analyses. For example, engineers often fail to capture the full life cycle (LC) environmental impacts of a technology they are designing, both over its lifetime and with respect to upstream/downstream activities within the supply chain in which the technology will eventually be deployed. The vast majority of life cycle assessments (LCAs) are still conducted on technologies that are much closer to commercialization. This is despite wide recognition that the greatest potential to steer technology toward environmentally preferable outcomes exists at the earliest stages of technology development. The challenge is that this stage also coincides with the least available data, greatest uncertainty, and a paucity of analytic tools for addressing these challenges (Bergerson et al., 2019). While there has been some discussion of methods related to the assessment of emerging technologies, most studies to date are case studies related to specific technology applications, conditions, and regional settings. The spectrum of emerging technologies ranges from products or processes that are innovative and potentially disruptive, to the next generation of commercial products incorporating marginal changes to an incumbent technology (Bergerson et al., 2019). The challenges and opportunities across this spectrum require further discussion within the research community to address questions such as:• When is it useful to conduct an LCA and what questions can it reasonably answer at different stages of development and commercialization?• What aspects of the technology/adoption context need the most careful consideration?• With what other tools or techniques can/should the LCA be coupled?While the fundamental approach to conducting an LCA of emerging technologies is akin to that of LCA of existing technologies, emerging technologies pose additional challenges. Despite the growing interest in applying LCA at early stages of technology development, there is a lack of systematic guidance for LCA practitioners to evaluate emerging technologies. There remains confusion about how LCA can (or should) be used at different stages of technology development and market adoption. The procedures and tools employed to assess emerging technologies still tend to be applied on an ad hoc basis, with no clear guidelines as to what methods are available, applicable, or appropriate. While some authors review and provide recommendation...

“…Emphasis should be placed on novel interpretation and presentation techniques to ensure that stakeholders appreciate the degrees of uncertainty, as well as the value of inconclusive but directional insights, to aid in technology development and to highlight potential unintended consequences. Simplified LCA or screening approaches may be more appropriate in this quadrant (e.g., Hung, Ellingsen, & Majeau‐Bettez, ; Hur et al., ; Marco, Ferruccio, Michele, Faraldi, & Polverini, ). It is imperative that the analyst communicate that the set of preliminary configurations and conditions selected for the analysis likely do not reflect the full set of potential conditions and applications for that technology (Tuomisto & Teixeira De Mattos, ).…”

Section: Characteristics and Lca Challenges For The Four Maturity Quamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The literature on LCA of emerging technologies includes many case studies, variously using terms such as prospective (Mendoza Beltran et al., ; Cooper & Gutowski, ; Raugei & Winfield, ; Sathre et al., ; Wender & Seager, ), early stage (Cramer, ; Hetherington et al., ; Hung, Ellingsen, & Majeau‐Bettez, ), ex ante (Hesser, ; Villares, Işıldar, Van der Giesen, & Guinée, ; Zhou et al., ), anticipatory (Gifford, Chester, Hristovski, & Westerhoff, ; Kendall & Yuan, ; Mattick, Landis, Allenby, & Genovese, ; Ravikumar, Seager, Cucurachi, Prado, & Mutel, ; Tsang, Philippot, Aymonier, & Sonnemann, ; Wender et al., ; Wender, Foley, Guston, Seager, & Wiek, ), explorative (Steubing, Mutel, Suter, & Hellweg, ), and scenario‐based (Arvidsson et al., ) LCA. The diversity of terms mirrors the wide range of available methods and disparate language employed across the LCA community.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity

Bergerson

Brandt

Cresko

et al. 2019

125

Life cycle assessment (LCA) analysts are increasingly being asked to conduct life cycle-based systems level analysis at the earliest stages of technology development. While early assessments provide the greatest opportunity to influence design and ultimately environmental performance, it is the stage with the least available data, greatest uncertainty, and a paucity of analytic tools for addressing these challenges. While the fundamental approach to conducting an LCA of emerging technologies is akin to that of LCA of existing technologies, emerging technologies pose additional challenges. In this paper, we present a broad set of market and technology characteristics that typically influence an LCA of emerging technologies and identify questions that researchers must address to account for the most important aspects of the systems they are studying. The paper presents: (a) guidance to identify the specific technology characteristics and dynamic market context that are most relevant and unique to a particular study, (b) an overview of the challenges faced by early stage assessments that are unique because of these conditions, (c) questions that researchers should ask themselves for such a study to be conducted, and (d) illustrative examples from the transportation sector to demonstrate the factors to consider when conducting LCAs of emerging technologies. The paper is intended to be used as an organizing platform to synthesize existing methods, procedures and insights and guide researchers, analysts and technology developer to better recognize key study design elements and to manage expectations of study outcomes. K E Y W O R D Searly stage technology assessment, environmental impacts, industrial ecology, life cycle assessment (LCA), research and development (R&D), unintended consequences