Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

Zurek, Monika; Henrichs, Thomas

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.11.005

Cited by 161 publications

(164 citation statements)

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“…Besides global scenarios, much effort was directed to 35 sub-global assessments linking across scales. This resulted in a large body of empirical evidence and methodological findings of how to develop multi-scale scenarios (Zurek and Henrichs 2007). The results of the MA spurred thinking on the role of global scenarios in sub-global studies.…”

Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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“…In addition, the project took a socialecological systems approach (Berkes et al, 2003), recognising the deep links between ecological and socio-cultural systems, the nestedness of these systems, and the inherent complexity and non-linearity of processes. Therefore, to allow participants at each scale to articulate their views and opinions, while at the same time linking scenarios between different scales, we took a 'complementary' approach to our cross-scalar analysis (Zurek and Henrichs, 2007)…”

Section: Study Context: Project Cobramentioning

confidence: 99%

Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Mistry

Tschirhart

Verwer³

et al. 2014

Environmental Science & Policy

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AcknowledgementsWe would like to thank all the participants of the North Rupununi and Guyana scenario workshops and Dominique Laffly for his advice in carrying out statistical analysis. Thank you to the anonymous reviewers for their comments. This research has been funded by the Environment Programme, Management of Natural Resources, DG Research and Innovation, European Commission 7 th Framework. 2 AbstractScenarios help build a shared understanding of potential futures and allow us to engage with how interventions or activities may impact on people and the environment. There are many scenario sets that have been developed at the global and regional level, but to a lesser extent at the national and local levels. Yet fewer studies have explicitly linked imagined futures at different socialecological scales. In this paper, we discuss how scenario analysis was used with indigenous communities and national level stakeholders in Guyana, South America, to explore context specific futures in relation to linked socialecological systems. These futures were then analysed against published regional (Amazonian) and international scenarios using a qualitative coding approach and supported by quantitative factorial analysis. This allowed us to develop a matrix of multi-scalar scenarios, showing how scenarios at all scales interact. From this, we were able to identify virtuous and vicious cycles amongst the different scales where developments produced feedbacks to make situations worse, better or counteract change at other levels. Our results show that there is considerable mismatch between the different scales of analysis, with the national scale playing a key role as mediator. In addition, we highlight the importance of focusing on the root causes shaping futures as well as participatory forms of scenario development in order to provide better policy and decision support, and stimulate engagement at all levels of organisation in the process of change.

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“…They help to deal with uncertainty and complexity, and therefore enhance decision performance by supporting the definition of solutions for potential challenges. Zurek and Henrichs (2007) use uncertainty and complexity as the main axes to define ways of exploring the future, specifically: (1) how uncertain we are about future developments of key drivers; and (2) how well we understand the complexity of the system and its causalities (see Figure 3.1). Figure 3.1 helps to identify the type of futures study needed in policy formulation, depending on the degree of uncertainty and complexity of the policy question.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Complexity: The Raison D'être Of Scenarios Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios: tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty?

Pérez‐Soba¹,

Maas²

2015

The Tools of Policy Formulation

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Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

Cited by 161 publications

References 8 publications

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Our common future? Cross-scalar scenario analysis for social–ecological sustainability of the Guiana Shield, South America

Scenarios: tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty?

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